CUSA-fans.com Game of the Week:

Houston at UAB (Saturday, January 21^st, 6:00 PM, CSTV)

With conference play heating up, games between NCAA Tournament hopefuls become more important than games involving the league leader. In Conference USA, there are only one or two teams (outside of Memphis) capable of building up enough of an NCAA profile to garner attention from the Selection Committee. As a result of that, when the only two teams with an RPI better than 150 (once again, other than Memphis) meet, it deserves recognition as the Game of the Week. Houston had early-season wins over LSU and Arizona, but those are a distant memory nowadays. They are 10-5, 1-2 in Conference USA, the lone league win being a 4-point victory at home against lowly Southern Miss. They lost at Rice and Central Florida within the conference as well. Their inconsistency is maddening. The Cougars average over 75 points per game and give up less than 67. Houston, ranked 96^th in the RPI, is the 147^th-most efficient offensive team in the country, while also the 100^th most-efficient defensive group, according to Ken Pomeroy. UAB started the season off slowly, and were at 4-3 after seven games. Since then, though, the Blazers have run 9 straight victories, including blowout wins over Old Dominion and Oklahoma State. UAB, 13-3 overall and 3-0 within the conference, puts up over 77 points per game, and allows just under 65 per game. They are tied for the conference lead with fellow unbeatens Memphis and UTEP. The Blazers, ranked 40^th in the RPI, have the 66^th-most efficient offense in the nation, as well as the 38^th-most efficient defense. Both of these teams are undersized, but like to get out and play transition basketball. It should be an entertaining and exciting game.

UAB, when their press is forcing a bevy of turnovers and they have momentum, can beat any team they play due to their athleticism and style of play. UAB’s success starts with their perimeter. Marvett McDonald (15.3 ppg, 2.8 apg, 1.7 spg) is the team’s best scorer and is also a very good outside shooter. He has reached double-figures in all but two games this season. McDonald is also a solid defender and distributor. At the other guard spot, Cardell “Squeaky” Johnson (7.9 ppg, 6.5 apg, 3.3 apg, 54% 3pt) may be the best point guard in the conference (yes, including Darius Washington). He doesn’t score that much, but is a terrific passer and defender. His athleticism and quickness allows the Blazers to start their transition game on every possession. When needed, he can be a point-producer, as he is adept at penetrating and shooting the three. Wen Mukubu (10.4 ppg, 3.6 rpg, 1.3 apg, 45% 3pt) is another athletic player on the wing. He is very solid on the defensive end due to his length and quickness and can also score on the other end. He is third on the team in three-pointers made. There is plenty of depth on the perimeter. 6-2 Paul Delaney (7.4 ppg, 3.3 rpg, 1.0 spg) is also a scorer. He is very athletic and can get into the lane and finish. Delaney is not much of an outside shooter, but his slashing ability and defensive prowess earns him plenty of minutes. Richard Jones (5.2 ppg) will likely get a start in the upcoming game after the recent injury to star DeMario Eddins. He is a solid penetrator and finisher, but is not a very good three-point shooter. He is averaging almost 10 points per game in his last 4 contests. Derrick Broom (2.2 ppg) also sees minutes in the backcourt. Without Eddins, the frontcourt has taken a hit in terms of depth. Frank Holmes (7.7 ppg, 5.3 rpg, 1.2 bpg, 68% fg) is now the lone starter in the post. He is a solid inside player and his athleticism gives him the ability to rebound and score over bigger opponents. He is also a very good shot-blocker. Seeing increased minutes with Eddins out, senior Brandon Tobias (4.5 ppg, 2.8 rpg) has made the most of it with his excellent defense and solid rebounding. His strength down gives him the ability to hold his own against bigger and taller foes. He is also a decent inside scorer. Also in the frontcourt is freshman Lawrence Kinnard (4.7 ppg, 2.3 rpg). He came in as a heralded recruit and, while he hasn’t lived up to the expectations entirely, he is a versatile player that can slash to the basket as well hit the jumper. With more experience, his numbers will go up.

Houston can be a very difficult team to beat on certain days, but also looks extremely vulnerable on other days. It all starts with their backcourt, which is one of the best in the conference. Oliver Lafayette (16.4 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 3.3 spg) is mired in a horrendous slump the past four games, averaging only slightly better than 6 points per game, a far cry from his overall season average. He is 8 for 49 in that four-game span, including 4 for 34 from three-point range. When playing well, Lafayette is a very good scorer and shooter who is also a terrific defender. At the other guard spot, Lanny Smith (10.7 ppg, 5.9 apg, 1.9 spg) is one of the more underrated point men in the country. He is an excellent passer and distributor and has picked up his scoring lately with Lafayette slumping. He can shoot the three and also can score off penetration. Brian Latham (8.5 ppg, 3.2 rpg, 3.9 apg, 2.1 spg) also starts on the perimeter. He is a solid all-around player who does everything fairly well. He is an excellent defender who is also a good passer and rebounder. Latham also pitches in on the offensive end. His most recent stat line at Rice demonstrates his versatility: 6 points, 6 rebounds, 9 assists, 2 steals, and 3 blocks. Chris Lawson (2.2 ppg) sees spot minutes in the backcourt, and is a solid contributor. Corey Bloom (2.9 ppg) has seen his minutes fluctuate throughout the entire season and is a decent scorer. Up front, several players are counted on to produce night in and night out. Ramon Dyer (11.1 ppg, 4.7 rpg, 1.8 spg) is the team’s best frontcourt player. He is a good scorer and rebounder on the interior. His athleticism and lithe frame allows him to shoot the three-ball effectively and be a very good defender, both in terms of blocks and steals. Jahmar Thorpe (9.7 ppg, 4.5 rpg, 1.1 spg) is another undersized frontcourt player that uses his athleticism to enable him to play against bigger players. Thorpe is a good inside scorer and rebounder as well as a solid defender. Lamar Roberson (6.4 ppg, 2.4 rpg, 41% 3pt) leads a host of frontcourt players that provide depth. He is a load of potential as a scorer at the forward spot, and is also a very good three-point shooter. Sergio de Randamie (4.4 ppg, 3.9 rpg, 1.3 spg) has seen his minutes drop drastically the past three games. He is a solid scorer and a very good rebounder who can also get a steal or two per game. On the other hand, Sam Roberson (3.3 ppg, 1.8 rpg) has seen his minutes rise the past couple of games. He is a decent scorer and board man that allows the starters some rest. Darrius Brannon (2.3 ppg, 1.5 rpg) got a start last game, but only played 7 minutes.

This game should be played at an up-tempo pace (what UAB game isn't?) with lots of points and, for that matter, turnovers. UAB plays much better at home, and this game is being played in Birmingham. If their press creates a plethora of turnovers and continues to keep Oliver Lafayette in a slump, Houston is going to get run out of the building. However, if Lanny Smith controls the game for the Cougars, and Lafayette gets his confidence back the Cougars will keep it a decent game. The point guard match-up of Squeaky Johnson and Smith is going to be a very good battle. Whoever wins that match-up is likely to emerge victorious. Overall, I think that UAB’s perimeter depth and athleticism is going to be too much for a slumping Houston team. On top of that, UAB is difficult to match up with and is playing at home. That recipe adds up to another win for the “Fastest 40 Minutes in Basketball.”

Prediction: UAB 83, Houston 72

Other Conference USA Observations

• Is Memphis going to lose a conference game? And for that matter, if they do, will it cost them a #1 seed? I would say “yes” and “no”. The best chance for the Tigers to lose a regular-season game is at UAB on March 2^nd. However, that loss won’t cost them a #1 seed. If they run the table other than that one game, they will be the fourth one seed. The other three? Duke, Florida, and Texas.
• What is up with Central Florida? They go to Houston on Saturday and upset the Cougars on the road. Four days later, they come home and lose to 5-12 South Dakota State. The Knights have a good backcourt in Josh Peppers and Justin Rose, but they need to develop consistency.
• Can UTEP be a remote contender for an at-large bid if they have a 12-4-type season in the conference? No. They were only 5-5 in the non-conference portion of the season, with their best win being over a Pacific team that has lost to UC-Riverside. However, John Tofi and Jason Williams may be the best frontcourt duo in the league.
• Rice has surprised me somewhat. I expected them to finish in the Top 5 of the league, but the outstanding play of forward Morris Almond has been a little bit shocking. His 19.9 point-per-game average is an increase of 12.7 ppg over last year’s numbers.
• Marshall has proven to be a difficult team to beat when they are on their homecourt. They took George Washington to overtime before losing, and only lost to UAB by 12 in a game that was closer than it looked. Mark Patton is a solid inside player.
• Even though East Carolina is 0-3 in the conference and 4-10 overall, they could be a spoiler (spoiler for what? NCAA bids? Nope. NIT bids? Probably) for several teams. They played Memphis close at home and went to Wake Forest and nearly pulled off the upset. In addition, they beat CAA contender UNC-Wilmington by 13 at home. Corey Rouse may be the best scorer/rebounder combination player in the league.

By Jeff Borzello, CUSA-fans Lead Basketball Writer