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UAB @ Memphis (Thursday, January 26th, 9:00 PM, ET) - Other Conference USA Observations

When the top teams in a conference get together for a big conference game, there is usually a plethora of attention given to the teams and the game. However, in Conference USA’s case, the only reason it is being discussed is the fact that people are wondering if Memphis can go through the league undefeated. I think that shafts UAB of the credit it deserves. If the NCAA Tournament were to start today, there is no doubt the Blazers would be a lock to get in the tourney. This game is going to be closer than people think. Memphis is 17-2 overall, and 3-0 in the conference. The Tigers have only lost to Duke and Texas, two of the teams on the long list of national title contenders. They are currently on a 6-game winning streak, including a victory over Tennessee last week. Memphis, ranked #3 in the RPI, average almost 83 points per game and give up just over 68 per contest. The Tigers are the 30th-most efficient offensive team in the country, as well as the 10th-most efficient defensive team, according to Ken Pomeroy. UAB is 14-3 overall, and 4-0 in Conference USA. The Blazers are currently on a 10-game winning streak after a slow start of 4-3. The recent string of wins includes victories over Oklahoma State, Old Dominion, and Houston. UAB scores over 77 points per game, and gives up just under 66. The Blazers, ranked 40th in the RPI, have the 69th-most efficient offense in the country and the 50th-most efficient defense. This game is going to be played at a ridiculously fast pace. With all the athletes on the court, this could be one of the more fun games to watch this season.

While UAB's press is the key to creating mometum in this game, it's their athleticism that drives that well-executed press and forces turnovers. Marvett McDonald (15.2 ppg) is a very good outside shooter and a solid defender. Teamed up with the sharp-passing PG “Squeaky” Johnson (7.9 ppg, 6.6 apg, 3.2 spg, 55% 3pt), the Blazers are strong at the perimeter. Wen Mukubu (10.8 ppg, 42% 3pt) and Paul Delaney (7.6 ppg) are both solid scorers. While Delaney is not much of an outside shooter, he gets his minutes thanks to his slashing ability and defensive skills. Frank Holmes (7.7 ppg, 5.2 rpg, 1.2 bpg, 67% fg) is the lone starter in the post and a solid shot blocker. Seeing increased minutes with Eddins out, senior Brandon Tobias (4.6 ppg, 2.7 rpg) has made the most of it with his excellent defense and solid rebounding. High-profile freshman Lawrence Kinnard (5.4 ppg, 2.7 rpg) is also in the frontcourt and has been playing better of late scoring 13 points and pulling down 7 rebounds in just 20 minutes of play against Houston.

Memphis is the most athletic team in the country and is also one of the toughest teams to defend. When I went to Madison Square Garden and saw them play Duke, I thought that they were more impressive than the Blue Devils and I still feel that way. The Tigers are unbelievable in the open-court, are long on defense, and create match-up problems at both ends of the floor. They have five freshmen in their first nine, to go with three sophomores and a senior. This is a young, talented team. Rodney Carney (17.7 ppg, 4.3 rpg, 1.5 spg, 41% 3pt) had been the best sixth man to come along in years until he was inserted into the starting lineup recently. He is the most athletic player in the nation, and is nearly impossible to guard on offense. In addition, Carney is a lock-down defender, as evidenced by his holding of JJ Redick to a scoreless second half. He had 37 points and 10 rebounds off the bench against Louisiana Tech earlier this season. Darius Washington (13.4 ppg, 4.2 apg) is one of the best point guards in the nation, when healthy. Unfortunately, he has been hampered by a right thigh contusion and has missed two games as a result of it. He could be hindered by the injury the entire season. Washington is a very good one-on-one player and can distribute the ball well. He is also a solid three-point shooter. The other two non-freshman that see double-figure minutes are starting post man Joey Dorsey (7.2 ppg, 7.3 rpg, 2.3 bpg) and backup point guard Andre Allen (4.6 ppg, 2.7 apg, 1.3 spg). Dorsey is an excellent rebounder and shot-blocker, who can also get a couple of buckets per game down low. Allen has been a major asset for John Calipari and the Tigers. When Washington is unable to play, he steps in and performs admirably. He is a good defender and can take his man off the dribble and then distribute to the scorers. The freshmen group for Memphis is led by Shawne Williams (13.7 ppg, 6.4 rpg, 1.5 spg, 1.4 bpg), one of the best freshmen in the country. He is an all-around player who scores on one end and collects rebounds, blocks, and steals on the other. Williams is very difficult to defend one-on-one due to his quickness and athletic ability. Wings Antonio Anderson (7.5 ppg, 3.5 rpg, 3.3 apg) and Chris Douglas-Roberts (9.2 ppg, 3.7 rpg) split time on the perimeter. Douglas-Roberts is athletic and can score, mainly from inside the arc. Anderson is a good scorer and passer who can stroke the three with efficiency. Center Kareem Cooper (4.6 ppg, 2.2 rpg) provides a big body down low, but was arrested yesterday and his status is unclear. Robert Dozier (5.6 ppg, 5.5 rpg, 1.2 bpg), a lanky big man, is a very good rebounder who can also score when needed.

I’m already excited for this game. It should be a highly entertaining battle, with the winner likely scoring in the high 80s. The team that plays the most defense and handles the opposing pressure better will likely win the game. In high-scoring games like this, UAB usually has the advantage. However, Memphis is at their best when their athletic wings can get out in transition and get easy baskets. Both teams are fairly deficient in the low post, as neither of the groups have a remotely dominant big man. As far as individual match-ups go, Memphis has the advantage. The point guard battle is going to be phenomenal though. Darius Washington gets most of the accolades, but UAB’s Squeaky Johnson may be a better pure point guard. Marvett McDonald is going to have to have a big game on the perimeter for the Blazers, but Memphis’ bevy of athletic wing defenders will give him a tough time. Since Memphis doesn’t have to worry about defending a very good low-post player and will not be pushed around by UAB, they have the edge in this game. However, UAB’s non-stop pressure will force a glut of turnovers and keep the game close.

Prediction: Memphis 91, UAB 84

Other Conference USA Observations

• Not a good week for Rice. After starting 2-0 in the conference, they lost a close one to UAB at home and then lost in overtime at SMU. However, I can see them going 7-3 the rest of the way and finishing above .500.
• Central Florida continues to befuddle me. They have won on the road at Houston this season, and came within 2 points of upsetting Kentucky in Lexington. However, they lost at home to South Dakota State, and this week escaped by 1 at home against Tulsa.
• Speaking of Tulsa, is there another team that has a worse collection of losses than them? They have home losses to Stephen F. Austin and North Texas, and road defeats to Cal State-Northridge, Central Florida, Lamar, BYU, Oral Roberts, and Eastern Michigan. First of all, why are they playing teams like Oral Roberts on the road? Second of all, was it only a few years ago that they were a constant bracket buster in the NCAA Tournament?
• Is this the week that UTEP finally falls back to Earth? Standing at 4-0 and tied for first in the conference, the Miners have to visit Houston on Saturday. If they win that game, and they protect their homecourt against UAB the following Saturday, UTEP could potentially go 13-1 in the conference. Stay tuned.
• Other than Tulsa, East Carolina might have the most embarrassing set of losses in the conference. Just on their homecourt, they have defeats at the hands of Western Carolina, UNC-Greensboro, and Gardner-Webb, not to mention SMU. With each of those three teams (obviously not SMU) in the same geographical region as the Pirates, these types of losses could hurt recruiting in the near-future.
• Looking at Southern Mississippi’s schedule and results, one notices several interesting things. First off, they took 4 overtimes to beat New Orleans and lost to McNeese State—at home. Secondly, they have played non-D1 teams William Carey, West Florida, and Spring Hill at home. However, they have also faced the likes of Arkansas, Bradley, Auburn, and other Top-110 RPI teams South Alabama, Samford, and San Diego State. Of course, they lost to each of those teams. They have by far the worst collection of wins I’ve seen so far: Lamar, New Orleans, Tennessee State, and Tulane.
• I can’t talk about Conference USA without discussing Memphis. The Tigers passed another test by defeating Tennessee at home last week. They only have 4 remotely difficult games left: Two against UAB, one against UTEP, and one against Houston. I’ll stick to my guns and say that the Blazers will beat Memphis on March 2nd. Circle that date, Memphis-haters (or people that just don’t want to see an undefeated team).