Pirates head to Houston for critical league series with Cougars

ECU dropped four of five to Houston last season, but leads series, 15-12

With two weekends remaining in the Conference USA regular season race, East Carolina sits in second place behind Rice—exactly where the league’s coaches predicted them to finish in the preseason poll.

However, Houston (23-25, 11-7) is right on the Pirates’ heels and only a game back of the Bucs. It trails league-leading Rice by essentially three games since the Owls took the series from the cross-town rival Cougars over the weekend.

22nd-ranked East Carolina (35-14, 12-6), which has won seven of its last nine and swept Sun Belt foe UL-Lafayette over the weekend, still has a shot at winning the regular season. However, due to the Pirates dropping its series to Rice, they need the Owls to lose a minimum of two games in their final series versus UCF and UAB. Meanwhile, East Carolina would need to run the table and sweep its series with Houston and Memphis.

In other words, it’s a longshot for Billy Godwin’s club to capture the regular season crown at this point. However, securing at least a second place finish would certainly help keep the Pirates’ slim hosting chances alive.

Since starting 3-14, Rayner Noble’s Houston team has managed a 20-11 mark in its last 31 games to pull within two games of .500. The Cougars had won five straight prior to dropping the final two contests (7-5, 6-5) in its series against Rice. They bounced back with their second mid-week victory over McNeese State in as many weeks—using a nine spot in the seventh to break open a 3-2 game.

Offensively, there is no comparison between the clubs.

East Carolina is hitting .340 as a team, which is easily the highest mark in CUSA, en route to averaging nearly nine runs per game. The Pirates have 77 home runs and 119 doubles to boast a stellar .544 slugging percentage. Eight of the club’s nine regulars slug .500 or better. Those same eight also possess batting averages of .321 or above and at least five home runs. Jared Avchen’s .285 clip is the lowest in ECU’s potent attack.

Leadoff man Trent Whitehead, who leads the team in strikeouts (43) and walks (26), is tops on the team with his .379 mark at the plate.

Junior designated hitter Kyle Roller, who bats .340, is one of four Pirates with at least ten home runs. Roller, who has 12 round-trippers, has driven in a team-high 58 runs.

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Houston, which is hitting .288 as a team, averages only 5.4 runs per game. The Cougars are slugging a shade below .400, as they’ve hit just hit 20 long balls all season.

Shortstop Blake Kelso is hitting .340 to lead the way and is second on the team with 12 doubles.

Leftfielder Caleb Ramsey, whose .323 average ranks third, is second on the team with three home runs while driving in a team-high 39 runs.

Chris Wallace, who has started all 29 games he’s played in, tops the club with his seven home runs.

The Pirates’ weekend rotation, which delivered its best collective performance of the year against UL-Lafayette when all three starters went at least seven-innings, is looking sharper all the time and that’s encouraging with the lack of depth in the bullpen. However, that thin bullpen will be well-rested for Houston after not playing any mid-week games due to exams.

Meanwhile, Houston’s team ERA of 5.62 doesn’t really reflect the quality of pitching that East Carolina will see this weekend. The Pirates will likely see a pair of righties in 6’3” sophomore Jared Ray (4-2, 4.37) and 6’4” freshman Michael Goodnight (4-3, 4.05) in the first two games. On Sunday, they’ll see junior lefty Wes Musick. Musick (4-6, 6.14) was second team All-CUSA last season, but opponents are hitting .306 off him this year.

The Cougars top option out of the pen is 6’3 junior lefty Donnie Joseph. Joseph has appeared in 24 contests while registering a team-high seven saves. He has only allowed 28 hits in 42.2 innings of work and opponents are hitting just .184 against him.

The teams will meet at 7:30 p.m. (EST) on Friday and Saturday before closing the three-game set at 2:00 p.m. on Sunday.

FINAL PREDICTION AND ANALYSIS

After a 25-5 start, East Carolina was ranked as high as 14th. However, the Pirates proceeded to lose seven of their next ten. The last two weeks though, they’ve returned to their winning ways and head to Houston playing some of their best baseball of the season when taking all facets of the game into consideration.

With potent bats and a rested bullpen, the Pirates will pick up the huge series win on the road. If their consistency of play is what it’s been the past two weeks, they may even pull off the sweep.