East Carolina vs. Tulane Football Preview

Pirates look to earn seventh win of season on Senior Day

Date: Saturday, November 24th

Time: 1:00 p.m. (EST)

Location: Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium (43,000); Greenville, NC

ECU vs. Tulane General Overview

The last time these two programs met was in the 2004 season. Both East Carolina and Tulane were struggling mightily at the time. The Pirates won that contest on a Cam Broadwell field goal as time expired.

Both programs have undergone coaching changes since and each appears to be headed in the right direction under their new leadership.

East Carolina has assured itself of a second straight bowl trip, but the Pirates are looking to get back on track after squandering—for the time being at least—an opportunity to play in (and host) the CUSA title game on December 1 st. They had two weeks to marinate on and try to correct what went awry in their 26-7 manhandling at the hands of a then 1-8 Marshall team. Prior to the humbling defeat in Huntington, ECU had won five consecutive CUSA games.

The Green Wave has steadily improved under first year coach Bob Toledo, who was previously the head man at UCLA. After a 1-5 start, Tulane has won three of its last five. It defeated UTEP (34-19) in the Superdome two weeks ago while winning at Rice (45-31) last Saturday. The Green Wave had not recorded back-to-back victories since the 2005 campaign.

Despite its slow start to the year, Tulane did play LSU a competitive contest—trailing on 10-9 at halftime—when the Tigers came to New Orleans.

Tulane Offense vs. East Carolina Defense

Advantage: Tulane

When you talk about the Tulane offense, you talk about running back Matt Forte’ (www.mattforte25.com). Forte’, who is the nation’s leading rusher with his average of 182.4 yards per game, is a candidate for the Doak Walker Award, Maxwell Award and even the Heisman Trophy. He became the 11 th person in FBS (Division I-A) history to eclipse the 2,000-yard mark when he piled up 194 yards versus Rice. Forte’, who tied his own school and CUSA record with five touchdowns against the Owls, has reached the end zone 22 times this year and leads the nation in scoring (12.2 ppg). He also has the second most receptions (29) on the team.

The Green Wave offense, which puts up 401.4 yards and 25.5 points per game, has broken the 400-yard barrier on seven different occasions this season. The 45-point output against Rice marked the first time Tulane had scored 45 points in a game since 2004.

The unit has been lacking a steady signal-caller, as both sophomore Anthony Scelfo and redshirt freshman Kevin Moore have taken significant snaps.

Scelfo, who has seen the most action, provides the Green Wave with a dual threat. The 5’10, 189-pounder has completed 53.5 percent of his 185 attempts while throwing for 1,263 yards. He has six touchdown tosses and seven interceptions. On the ground, Scelfo has 165 yards.

Moore, who has played in seven games, is more of your stereotypical drop back passer. The 6’4, 232-pounder is 26-of-44 for 402 yards and two scores. He has not thrown an interception. Against Rice, he performed the best—completing 6-of-10 passes for 125 yards.

Redshirt sophomore wide receiver Jeremy Williams is the top target. He was limited to four catches for 11 yards last week, but has 40 receptions for 701 yards and five scores on the season.

The Pirate defense is pretty banged up—particularly in the front seven. Against Marshall, it was unable to get off the field and the Herd controlled the ball for nearly 38 minutes. It forced several third and long situations, but Marshall came up with the necessary yardage through the air on a consistent basis. East Carolina allowed 477 total yards—including 239 on the ground.

ECU has relied heavily on turnovers and it has been able to force 25 thus far (while only committing 11). The Pirates have intercepted 14 passes and no one has more than 2.

East Carolina Offense vs. Tulane Defense

Advantage: East Carolina

Following the third largest offensive output in school history versus Memphis (641 yards), the Pirates were only able to produce a measly 259 yards against a Marshall defense that was allowing 460. The power outage in Huntington was undoubtedly the unit’s worst performance of the season and left everyone—players, coaches and fans—shaking their heads.

Rob Kass started the game under center, but it was Patrick Pinkney that took the majority of the snaps. With the exception of the third quarter drive to cut the deficit to 16-7, the Pirates weren’t able to put together anything the entire day.

Pinkney has completed 60 percent of his passes for 1,195 yards and 10 touchdowns (to four picks). He is also a threat running the football and has 241 yards on 63 carries.

Kass, who is the pocket passer, has thrown for 951 yards and six scores (to four interceptions) while connecting on 54 percent of his attempts.

You’ll likely see both versus the Green Wave, as you have for most of the season.

They were also not the beneficiary of the turnovers as they have been throughout the season. With the field long and the big plays not happening, East Carolina has really not had the consistency to put lengthy drives together. The Pirates rank next to last in CUSA in total offense—averaging 372 yards per game.

For ECU to be successful, it must get the ball in the hands of Chris Johnson, Dwayne Harris and Jamar Bryant. It struggled to accomplish that in the Marshall loss.

Chris Johnson, who has made countless plays running and catching the ball, did manage to break the 1,000-yard mark for the first time in his career. “CJ” now has 1,045 yards and 14 touchdowns on the ground. He also has 30 receptions for 411 yards and four scores.

Bryant has 40 catches for 596 yards while Dwayne Harris has caught 24 balls for 211. Harris, who is an explosive and powerful runner, is also a threat on reverses, double passes and plays of that nature.

Tulane’s front seven is very strong against the run—allowing only 124.7 yards per game on the ground. The Green Wave has had its difficulties defending the pass, though. Opponents are throwing for 293.6 yards per game, but TU has been able to record 27 sacks.

Rice was only able to run for 23 yards, but Chase Clement completed 35-of-55 for 353 yards and four touchdowns.

Linebacker Evan Lee has a team-high 91 tackles—including eight behind the line. Joe Goosby, who plays either linebacker or strong safety depending on the defensive personnel, is second on the team with 84 tackles and registered 14 against Rice.

Defensive end Antonio Harris leads the way with five sacks.

Cornerback Josh Lumar is playing well. He had a career-high six pass break-ups against the Owls last week.

Special Teams

Advantage: East Carolina

The Pirates possess the edge in the return game while the Greenies get a slight nod in the kicking phase. The punting match-up is essentially a stalemate.

East Carolina ’s Chris Johnson is one of the nation’s most dangerous kickoff return men. He averages 28.5 yards per return and took one 96 yards for a touchdown against UCF.

Dwayne Harris has the ability to make the first man miss on punt returns and averages over ten yards per attempt.

Pirate punter Matt Dodge averages 41.6 per boot, but only nets 33.1. Placekicker Ben Hartman has been erratic. He struggled to start the season, then got hot and is currently struggling. The sophomore is 11-of-19 on field goals and has made all 40 of his PAT attempts. Hartman’s struggles have come from the 30 to 39-yard range where he is only 4-of-10.

Ross Thevenot and Darren deRochemont have shared the kicking and punting duties for Tulane. Thevenot has punted 44 times for a 38.9 yard average while deRochemont has booted it 24 times for a 39.8 yard mark. DeRochmont handles the kickoffs while Thevenot is the placekicker. Thevenot is 11-of-15 and a perfect 3-of-3 from 40 to 49 yards.

Ade Tuyo is averaging 24.2 yards per kickoff return for the Greenies. Casey Robottom brings back the punts (4.2 ypr on 13 returns).

Intangibles

Advantage: East Carolina

While the Marshall loss was very disappointing, East Carolina can not allow it to do further damage to its season. The Pirates still have an outside shot at playing for the conference title and even if the stars don’t align for that to happen they still have plenty to play for. With a win over Tulane and in the bowl game, ECU will surpass last season’s win total and finish 8-5.

If that isn’t enough, it will be Senior Day on Saturday at Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium.

Meanwhile, Tulane will attempt to close their season by winning four of its last six. The Green Wave also has an opportunity to finish with a .500 mark in the league and lay one more brick in the foundation that Bob Toledo is building.

Final ECU vs. Tulane Analysis & Prediction

As East Carolina coach Skip Holtz has said on multiple occasions, the best way to bury a loss is to get back out there on the field. After two weeks, the Pirates should be chomping at the bit to remove the Marshall loss from their memory.

Tulane’s strength is obviously running the football with Matt Forte’. ECU is unlikely to totally shut him down, but they must frustrate him and not permit the big play. He will likely get his 100 to 150 yards, but he will need to earn every one.

The passing game will also be key. The Pirates will need to protect the passer well and if they do, a huge day through the air is likely. Rob Kass and Patrick Pinkney will combine for over 300 yards through the air to make up for what Chris Johnson can’t do on the ground against a stout Green Wave rush defense. On the other hand, Tulane will surely attempt to exploit the Pirates’ poor pass defense.

Tulane will likely seek to carry out a game plan similar to the one the Herd humbled the Pirates with.

The Green Wave will move it well, but the Pirates move it better to collect their seventh win.

East Carolina 34 - Tulane 24