TITLE RUN: Conference USA divisional races heat up

Eight teams are mathematically alive with two weeks remaining

While some teams chances are certainly greater than others, eight of Conference USA’s 12 football playing members still have an opportunity to earn an appearance in the league’s championship game on December 6th.

Conference USA is a microcosm of the parity that has increasingly permeated college football in recent years. Teams know that they must come to play and execute each and every week or they’re at risk of getting upset.

A few cases in point…

SMU has struggled in its first season under Junes Jones; however, the Mustangs have been within a play of upsetting the top two teams in the West division. The Ponies dropped a 37-31 decision to second place Tulsa while division-leading Houston needed two touchdowns in the game’s final five minutes to escape SMU’s Ford Stadium with a victory.

Marshall (4-6, 3-3), who has not managed to muster much offense this season, lit up Houston in a Tuesday night game in Huntington. The Herd, which was sporting green helmets for the first time in more than two decades, was coming off a 23-21 loss at UAB (3-7, 2-4). However, it went up and down the field against the Cougars. Marshall built its margin to 37-9 early in the fourth quarter before cruising to the 37-23 triumph.

Memphis (5-5, 3-3) defeated UAB, 33-30, and Southern Miss, 36-30. Then, the Golden Eagles turned around and thrashed UAB, 70-14.

Makes sense, doesn’t it? Perhaps, the league should be called CONFUSA rather than CUSA.

While CUSA’s West Division is more top heavy and definitely stronger from top to bottom than the league’s other half in the East, it certainly has not been immune to the craziness that exists throughout the conference.

Most people thought Tulsa was the closest thing to a dominant force that the league possessed. However, that theory was quickly dismissed last week after the Cougars humbled the 23 rd ranked Golden Hurricane, 70-30, at Robertson Stadium in Houston.

Tulsa and Rice also have 5-1 marks, but the Golden Hurricane hold second place in the standings as a result of its 63-28 win over the Owls back on October 4th.

Now let’s play “what if” and discuss all the possible scenarios of how things could shake out in the stretch run for the CUSA title game.

If Houston wins its remaining games against UTEP and cross-town rival Rice, it will host the Conference USA championship game. If the Cougars lose to UTEP and beat Rice, Tulsa must lose one of its last two.

However, if Houston beats UTEP and loses to Rice, it will need the Owls to lose to Marshall and for Tulsa to drop at least one its two remaining games. If that happened, there would be three-way tie between Tulsa, Houston and Rice. Houston would have a victory over Tulsa and a loss to Rice while Tulsa would have a win against the Owls and a loss to the Cougars. Rice would have a victory over Houston and a loss to Tulsa. So, which team would represent the West?

It would go to the team with the highest overall winning percentage based on Conference USA play. For the remainder of the tiebreaker protocol, please defer to the .pdf file explaining the process on www.conferenceusa.com.

After losing to Houston, what does Tulsa need to have happen if it wants to fulfill its championship dreams? If Todd Graham’s club takes care of business at home against Tulane then manages a win over Marshall, which is always a challenge at Joan C. Edwards Stadium, it only needs Houston to drop either of its remaining games. The Golden Hurricane would get the nod over a 7-1 Rice team since it would have handed the Owls their lone loss.

If Tulsa loses a second league game, it would need Houston to lose out and Marshall to beat Rice.

Rice (7-3, 5-1) has already secured a second bowl bid in three seasons, but the Owls are thinking CUSA title. If second-year coach David Bailiff’s club wins out, it needs to Tulsa to lose to either Tulane or Marshall. If Rice drops its game to Marshall, it would need to win its senior day showdown with Houston and have Tulsa drop its final two games.

There is one more team that is mathematically alive in the West. Mike Price’s Miners (5-5, 4-2) need to win at least one of their last two to become bowl eligible. If UTEP defeats both Houston and East Carolina, they will be 6-2 and could win the West if Tulsa and Rice lost out.

While the odds are better than Mary Swanson marrying Lloyd Christmas, they are highly unlikely. However, you can never say never in Conference USA.

SMU and Tulane are left to play spoiler.

In the East, it remains East Carolina’s division to lose. Two weeks ago, the Pirates placed themselves in the catbird’s seat by hanging on to defeat Marshall, 19-16, in overtime. Last week, ECU had a chance to clinch its title game berth thanks to Marshall getting upset at home by UCF. However, its offense was stagnant and it suffered a 21-3 loss at long-time nemesis Southern Miss.

ECU is 4-2 and still firmly in control of its destiny. The Pirates only need to win one of their last two games (@ UAB, UTEP), but that will be easier said than done when you consider the fact that this ECU team is only a shadow of what it was earlier in the season as a result of an almost unheard number of injuries. Amazingly enough, it is also possible that Skip Holtz’s club could crawl into the championship game with a 4-4 league mark and a three-game losing streak. How? If Marshall and Memphis split their remaining two games and Southern Miss drops its season finale’ at SMU, ECU will be the East representative.

For Mark Snyder and the Thundering Herd, it is simple. Marshall must win its remaining games against Rice and Tulsa AND East Carolina must lose its last two.

What about Tommy West and his 3-3 Memphis Tigers? They’re still in the chase despite being forced to play their third and fourth team quarterbacks. The Tigers sit at 5-5 overall and are also in search of a sixth win that would propel them into bowl eligble status for a second straight season. For West’s team to get a shot at returning to its home stadium in January to play in the Liberty Bowl, it will need to win its games against UCF and Tulane, have ECU lose out, and have Marshall lose at least one of its remaining games since the Herd beat them 17-16 early in the season.

Larry Fedora’s first-year in Hattiesburg certainly has not gone as he well as he would have liked. However, the Golden Eagles have won three straight after their 2-6 start to get within a win of bowl eligibility. With a win in Dallas against SMU on November 29 th, Southern Miss would not only be eligible to go bowling, but depending on what happens this weekend it could still be alive in the East Division race. USM must have East Carolina, Marshall and Memphis all lose out.

CORRECTION: (I knew I was bound to leave a scenario out!) Southern Miss can win the East without Memphis losing its two remaining games. If the USM beats SMU, Marshall and ECU lose out and Memphis loses to UCF, there would be a three-way tie between ECU, USM and Memphis. Each team would have 4-4 marks and 1-1 records against each other. Thus, it the next step in the tiebreaker process would be to look at the team's intra-division records. Memphis would be eliminated due to going 2-3 in the East. The Golden Eagles and Pirates would each be 3-2 against the East, but USM would get the nod since it beat ECU, 21-3, on November 15th.

2007 champion UCF and UAB will attempt to create more confusion in the muddled mess that is the CUSA East.

Whew! So there you have it…

Who knows how things will play out over the next two weeks? They may remain as is and we could have East Carolina traveling to Houston for a re-match. Or, as long as the odds are, UTEP could be hosting Southern Miss at the Sun Bowl.

Remember, this is CONFUSA…you NEVER know…