Houston Cougars @ East Carolina Pirates preview

Pirates resume Conference USA play against Cougars on Family Weekend

Date: Saturday, September 27, 2008

Time: 3:30 p.m. (EST)

Location: Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium (43,000); Greenville, NC

Television: CBS College Sports

Records: East Carolina (3-1 overall, 1-0 CUSA); Houston (1-3 overall, 0-0 CUSA)

Rankings: East Carolina—23rd- AP; 26th- ESPN/USA Today Coaches’

All-Time Series Record: East Carolina leads 5-3

Last Meeting: Saturday, September 29, 2007—Houston, TX—ECU 37 Houston 35

Houston @ ECU Injury/Personnel Report:

East Carolina

• RB Dominique Lindsay, knee; out
• OT Stanley Bryant, knee; out
• LB Quentin Cotton, knee; out
• WR TJ Lee, broken foot; out
• DT Brandon Setzer, knee; out
• SS Leon Best, ankle; probable
• CB Jerek Hewett, ankle; probable
• DT Khalif Mitchell, foot/toe; probable
• FB Kevin Gidrey, hand; probable
• DE Scotty Robinson, foot; doubtful

Houston

• Not Available

East Carolina-Houston General Overview

East Carolina has no time to sulk and feel sorry for itself over its hard fought, heartbreaking 30-24 overtime defeat at rival NC State last Saturday. The Pirates must put that loss into perspective and prepare to resume their journey toward their much desired Conference USA title this weekend when first-year coach Kevin Sumlin brings his Houston Cougars and their high-powered passing attack to Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium.

ECU had numerous opportunities to finish NC State off last week, but was unable to do so. The Pirates’ inability to finish drives proved costly against the Wolfpack.

The Cougars will be playing their fourth straight game away from Robertson Stadium. After opening the Sumlin era with a solid 55-3 win over Southern, Houston lost a high-scoring affair (56-37) at Oklahoma State. They were to return home the following week to face Air Force, but that game was moved to SMU’s Ford Stadium as a result of Hurricane Ike hitting the Houston area. UH dropped that game (31-28) and this past week’s at Colorado State (28-25) by a field goal. The Cougars did comeback from a 21-0 deficit against the Rams, but threw an interception in the end zone on third down with only eight seconds to play.

Last season, the Pirates escaped Houston with a 37-35 victory. UH outgained ECU, 484-329, and rallied from a 34-21 third quarter deficit, but the Cougars missed two potential game-winning field goals in the game’s final two minutes.

Houston’s last visit to Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium was during John Thompson’s first season in 2003. The Cougars, who were led by freshman quarterback Kevin Kolb, won that contest 27-13.

East Carolina Offense vs. NC State Defense

Advantage: East Carolina

The Pirates rolled up over 380 yards of offense—including more than 170 on the ground--against NC State, but it was their inability to finish two fourth quarter drives inside the Wolfpack’s five yard-line that stood out.

Up 21-17 with just over ten minutes remaining, ECU was snuffed out for a third consecutive play from the one yard-line when Jon Williams was dropped for a three yard loss on fourth-and-goal. While it wasn’t hard to understand the logic that Skip Holtz used in going for it, it was surprising that the Pirates didn’t use one of their two remaining timeouts to ensure that everyone was on the same page at such a critical juncture in the game.

Patrick Pinkney performed well, again. The Pirates’ leader went 19-of-32 for 210 yards and a touchdown. However, he also fumbled on a first and ten play from the Wolfpack’s eleven yard line in overtime when he held on to the ball too long on a hitch and go.

ECU received explosion plays from running back Norman Whitley and tight end Davon Drew. After taking a screen pass 51 yards for a score versus Tulane, Whitley continued to make the most of his opportunities against the Wolfpack. With the Pirates utilizing spread sets, the scatback scampered for 83 yards on only nine carries—including a 42 yard touchdown run in the third quarter. Drew put the Pirates up 14-7 in the first half when he aligned in the slot, ran a slant, and made a tremendous run to complete the 39-yard scoring play.

Dwayne Harris had a career day catching the football against NC State. Harris, the Pirates’ top playmaker, had 10 receptions for 88 yards against the Wolfpack and has already surpassed his 2007 reception total. He has 28 catches for 296 yards this season.

The Houston defense has struggled to date, as it is allowing 29.5 points and 438.2 yards per contest through four games. It is last in Conference USA against the run—allowing 235 yards per game (5.1 ypc). Against Oklahoma State, the Cougars gave up a staggering 699 yards of total offense. The Cowboys ran for 379 yards and passed for 320. They allowed 380 yards on the ground to Air Force’s option attack. They did show improvement in stopping the run the last timeout against Colorado State. The Rams only managed 146 yards on 40 attempts.

The defensive line, which returns three of its four starters, is led by defensive end Phillip Hunt. Hunt, who has 20 career sacks, has five tackles behind the line—including three sacks—this year.

The linebacking corps is highlighted by Cody Lubojasky, who has started 41 games in his Houston career.

Both Cougar cornerbacks have been playing pretty good football. Brandon Brinkley recorded 7 tackles and 3 pass break-ups against CSU while Quinte Williams had 10 stops and a forced fumble.

As a whole, the Houston secondary possesses very good speed and athleticism.

Houston Offense vs. East Carolina Defense

Advantage: Houston

It appears that Kevin Sumlin made a terrific hire in offensive coordinator Dana Holgerson. Holgerson, who is a Mike Leach disciple, has the Cougars looking like the Red Raiders through four games.

Under the guidance of signal-caller Case Keenum—who beat out last year’s co-starter Blake Joseph, Houston is averaging 36.2 points and 526.2 yards per game. The Cougars are throwing for 400 yards per game, but they do it largely with a quick, short passing game.

Playing behind a veteran, experienced offensive line, Keenum has only been sacked seven times despite attempting around 55 passes per contest. He is completing 64.7 percent of his attempts, has thrown for 1,521 yards, and boasts a touchdown to interception ratio of four to one (16 TD, 4 INT).

Keenum has plenty of options when he puts it in the air, as there are seven Cougar receivers with 11 or more receptions.

Versatile tight end Mark Hafner is Keenum’s top target. Hafner has 30 receptions for 319 yards and seven touchdowns. Tyron Carrier (24 receptions, 228 yards and three touchdowns), Patrick Edwards (22-262-1) and L.J. Castille (15-203-4) are other leading receivers.

While the Cougars have been predominantly a passing team, they have run the ball effectively when they’ve chosen to do so. Freshman Bryce Beall has rushed for 220 yards on only 33 attempts (6.7 ypc). Case Keenum is the team’s second leading rusher with 143 yards on 27 carries.

The Pirate defense had its worst day of the year against a previously anemic NC State offense. The Wolfpack put up 384 yards of offense—including 257 through the air. ECU was unable to get much pressure on Russell Wilson, and when it did he was able to evade the rush and make plays.

The secondary allowed three touchdowns through the air.

Van Eskridge registered seven stops—including six solos—against the Pack. He also put the Pirates up 7-0 with a 23-yard interception return for a touchdown in the first quarter.

CJ Wilson leads ECU with 3.5 sacks.

Nick Johnson played well, as he entered the starting line-up for the injured Quentin Cotton. Johnson totaled nine tackles in the game.

ECU & Houston Special Teams

Advantage: Even

Both teams have had their ups and downs in the kicking game.

Each has shown the ability to block kicks. The Pirates won their game against Virginia Tech after a blocked punt was returned for a score with less than two minutes remaining. They also returned a blocked field goal for a score against Tulane.

Houston’s tight end Wesley Scourten is the reigning Conference USA Special Teams Player of the Week after he blocked a punt and a field goal against Colorado State last week.

Chase Turner is averaging 44.8 yards on 12 punts for the Cougars, but they’re only netting 30.2. Darryl Freeney, who had a 25 yard return that he nearly took to the house against NC State, could have an opportunity for some game-changing returns if he can improve his consistency in fielding the football.

Matt Dodge had his best game of the season punting the football against NC State. He averaged 44.8 yards on six punts and pinned the Wolfpack inside its own 20 on four occasions. He also had a 70-yard punt on the game’s final play.

The Pirates were also glad to have placekicker Ben Hartman back against NCSU. Hartman made good on all three PAT attempts and his only field goal attempt—a 21 yard attempt with 4:27 remaining in the game.

Expect the Dodge to continue handling the kickoff duties for a couple more weeks while Hartman builds his leg strength back up to 100 percent.

Keith Fontenette is averaging 12.7 yards per punt return on three chances for UH.

The Pirates’ kickoff coverage was very suspect last week as the Wolfpack consistently started around their 35 or 40 yard line and began their final drive at midfield following a 45-yard return. They can ill-afford to allow Houston’s high-powered attack a short field time and again.

Dwayne Harris and Jon Williams provide the Pirates with the potential to have excellent starting field position.

Intangibles

Advantage: East Carolina

Both programs have played consecutive contests away from home that have gone down to the wire. The Pirates were 1-1 in those games while Houston was 0-2.

While East Carolina couldn’t seal the deal against NC State, it has proven that it can win the close ones and the value of that experience can’t be underestimated.

The Cougars, who hope to challenge the preseason favorite Tulsa in CUSA’s Western Division, will be looking to start the league schedule with a big win at the favorite to win the Eastern Division.

The Pirates will be playing before a sold out Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium for the first time since their 24-3 win over then No. 8 West Virginia three weeks ago.

East Carolina-Houston Final Prediction and Analysis

While we’ve learned a lot about the Pirates through the first four games of the season, we’ll probably learn more about them this week than we have in any game to date. After being under the eye of the nation during its 3-0 start, how will East Carolina bounce back after an overtime loss at rival NC State? Will Holtz’s club get back on track and move one win closer to its goal of a conference title?

For the Pirates to beat a very talented Houston team, they will need to execute their offense the way they did in victories over Virginia Tech and West Virginia when they put together lengthy scoring drives that ate up the clock. They can not afford to come up empty-handed like at NC State, as they’re likely to need every point they can get in this one.

Houston’s defense has been unable to stop the run so expect ECU to feed the ball to the trio of Simmons, Williams and Whitley. Expect them to rush for at least 200 yards, which will allow Pinkney to have another solid day through the air.

The Cougars’ capabilities on offense far exceed any other team that East Carolina has seen to date. Houston isn’t going to be stopped, but the Pirates must make them earn everything they get and tackle well in space to prevent quick strikes. They’ll also need to do a much better job than UH’s previous opponents have in getting off the field on third down, as the Cougars have converted an eye-opening 58 percent (36-of-62) of their attempts through four games.

Case Keenum will have his fifth consecutive 300-yard game through the air, but the Pirates will put together enough time consuming scoring drives to win a close one in a shootout.

East Carolina 38 - Houston 31