East Carolina @ NC State preview

15th-ranked Pirates face in-state rivals in Raleigh

Date: Saturday, September 20, 2008

Time: NOON (EST)

Location: Carter-Finley Stadium (57,583); Raleigh, NC

Television: ESPN

Records: East Carolina (3-0 overall; 1-0 CUSA); NC State (1-2 overall; 0-1 ACC)

Rankings: East Carolina—15 th- AP Poll; 17 th- USA Today/ESPN Coaches’ Poll

All-Time Series Record: NC State leads 15-10

Last Meeting: Saturday, October 20, 2007— Greenville, NC—NC State 34 ECU 20

ECU @ NC State Injury/Personnel Report:

East Carolina

• LB Pierre Bell, lower back; probable
• DT Khalif Mitchell, arm; probable
• SS Leon Best, ankle; probable
• PK Ben Hartman, hip; questionable
• LB Quentin Cotton, knee; out
• LT Stanley Bryant, knee; out
• RB Dominique Lindsay, knee; out
• DT Brandon Setzer, knee; out
• WR TJ Lee, broken foot; out

NC State

• DT Alan-Michael Cash, knee; out
• WR Donald Bowen; out
• WR Geron James; out
• OG Curtis Crouch, ankle; out
• TE Matt Kushner; out
• TE Anthony Hill; out
• RB Toney Baker; out
• RB Jamelle Eugene; out
• S Javon Walker, knee; out
• S Clem Johnson, broken jaw; out

East Carolina-NC State General Overview

After opening the season with back-to-back wins on ESPN against then No. 15/17 Virginia Tech and then No. 8 West Virginia, the Pirates propelled themselves into the Top 25 for the first time since 1999 and began receiving probably as much, if not more, positive media attention than at any other point in the program’s history.

However, with the early season success East Carolina has made itself the “hunted” rather than the “hunter”. How would the Pirates handle prosperity? Would they be able to focus and start the Conference USA schedule with a win over steadily improving Tulane?

The Pirates captured a 21-16 victory in their last visit to Carter-Finley Stadium on November 25, 2006.

The 14th ranked Pirates were forced to survive a scare in the Louisiana Superdome. However, head coach Skip Holtz was quick to point out that the game did not go down to the wire due to an emotional letdown, but rather a lack of offensive execution—which was caused by the combination of going up against a very talented Tulane defense and self-inflicted mistakes. East Carolina did what good teams do and found a way to pull out a 28-24 win on a day when it didn’t bring it’s A-game.

Tom O’Brien’s second NC State team has struggled out of the gates much like his first did last season. The Wolfpack have suffered more than their share of key injuries while also being plagued by a lack of offense in their 1-2 start. They opened their season with a 34-0 loss at South Carolina in a Thursday night game on ESPN. In week two, NC State bounced back by defeating FCS foe William and Mary, 34-24, in the home opener. The Pack opened ACC play this past weekend with a 27-9 loss to Clemson in Death Valley. While the improvement many not be evident to outsiders, Tigers’ coach Tommy Bowden stated that this Pack team was much better than the one his club faced last September.

It’s as East Carolina coach Skip Holtz said in this week’s press conference, “You can throw the records out when it comes to this game.” Last year, the Pirates were a six-point favorite, but the previously 1-5 Wolfpack walked out of Greenville with their chests stuck out following a 34-20 victory. ECU rallied from a 21-0 deficit early in the second quarter to pull within 21-17 at the break. They trimmed the margin to 21-20 through three, but it was the Pack that showed “no quarter” during the decisive final 15 minutes.

The Pirates’ last visit to Carter-Finley Stadium was in the 2006 regular season finale’. That trip resulted in a 21-16 victory, which was former NC State coach Chuck Amato’s final game as the head man at his alma mater.

East Carolina Offense vs. NC State Defense

Advantage: East Carolina

The Pirate offense operated pretty efficiently in wins over Virginia Tech and West Virginia. That same execution was not seen for the majority of the Tulane game. For the season, they’re averaging 26.3 points and 357 yards per contest.

Last season, East Carolina relied more on explosion plays and quick scoring strikes, as it had a staggering number of drives that were two minutes or less. This was primarily due to the presence of current Tennessee Titans’ rookie Chris Johnson, but also because the Pirates lacked the consistency necessary to sustain drives. This 2008 team has already had several 10-plus play drives that have resulted in points. The Pirates have been very proficient on third down, as they’ve converted 46 percent of their attempts (18-of-39). This success rate has been the result of the ability to run the football more consistently and the presence of a poised senior quarterback in Patrick Pinkney.

As Skip Holtz had said at last week’s press conference, he thought the Tulane defense was as good as the Pirates had faced thus far. The Green Wave certainly lived up to that on Saturday. They forced ECU into committing four turnovers. Tulane brought pressure from all angles and confused Pirate quarterback Patrick Pinkney—particularly during the opening half. The Green Wave sacked Pinkney five times after the Hokies and Mountaineers had combined to sack him only once. They also limited ECU to a scant 56 rushing yards on 30 carries. The Tulane offense controlled the football for over 22 minutes in the first half—doing it’s part to keep the Pirate offense off the field.

ECU Offensive Coordinator Todd Fitch helped calm Pinkney down during the break. As a result, his second half performance was more like what he had produced during the first two games. After going 1-of-5 to start the game, he concluded his day with a 22-of-32, 260-yard, two touchdown-effort. He threw his first interception of the year in the first half. Pinkney’s poise and leadership was never more evident than during the nine-play, 80-yard drive that concluded in the game-winning 24-yard touchdown pass to Jamar Bryant with only 1:41 remaining.

Pinkney has now completed 63-of-83 pass attempts in throwing for 707 yards and four scores this season. While he has only rushed for 34 yards on 26 carries, he is also a threat as a runner.

Playmaker Dwayne Harris is yet to see anytime at quarterback, but the Pirates continue to get the ball in his hands in a variety of ways. Harris’ production as a receiver has increased this season. After catching only 26 balls for 245 yards in 2007, the sophomore has 18 receptions for 208 yards in ’08. ECU attempted a reverse pass against Tulane, but the Green Wave secondary snuffed it out.

After holding its own and really controlling the games against Virginia Tech and West Virginia, the Pirate offensive line was dominated by the Tulane front. It will have to regroup and put together a much better performance against NC State—especially since it will be playing without starting left tackle Stanley Bryant, who was lost for several weeks after suffering a knee injury in New Orleans. His spot will be filled by Terence Campbell and DJ Scott.

Brandon Simmons and Jonathan Williams have carried the load on the ground. All in all they have been pretty steady, but each did have a fumble at Tulane. Williams has rushed for 128 yards (4.0 ypc) and a team-leading three touchdowns.

In the passing game, Pinkney’s top target other than Harris is Jamar Bryant. Bryant has 13 receptions for 159 yards and two scores—including the game-winner last week—and has now caught a pass in 17 consecutive games.

Running back Norman Whitley showed his explosiveness against Tulane. With just under six minutes remaining in the third quarter, Whitley took a screen pass 51 yards to give the Pirates a 21-14 lead.

The Pirate offense will face a Wolfpack defense that is allowing 28.3 points and 366.7 yards per game—151 of which are on the ground. Don’t let those numbers fool you, though. The Pack is very talented and fast. NC State has forced 10 turnovers to date and has a turnover ratio of plus two, which is a drastic improvement over last year’s minus 16.

The unit’s leader and top playmaker has been redshirt sophomore linebacker Nate Irving. Irving is tops on the team in tackles (28) and interceptions (3). Against Clemson, he picked off Cullen Harper’s pass on the first play of the game and took it 33 yards to give his team a quick 6-0 advantage.

The front is solid, but it will be missing redshirt junior Alan-Michael Cash. Cash led the defensive line with 50 stops in 2007.

Defensive end Willie Young made a strong impression on Holtz and the Pirate coaching staff with is performance against them last season.

The secondary is highlighted by senior safety JC Neal. Neal is second on the team in tackles with 19. The remainder of the unit is young, but talented. Each member, other than Neal, has at least one interception and all possess good size. Redshirt freshman Justin Byers is the other safety. Redshirt freshman Jeremy Gray and redshirt sophomore DeAndre Morgan man the corners.

NC State Offense vs. East Carolina Defense

Advantage: East Carolina

After allowing slightly over 30 points and 430 yards per game in ’07, the Pirates have tightened up this season. Through three games this year, ECU is only allowing 16.3 points and 268.7 yards.

While they didn’t play as well against Tulane as they had in the first two games, Hudson’s unit still performed pretty well—especially when you consider that Tulane had the football for over 22 minutes in the first half and the majority of those were in Pirate territory. They bended, but didn’t break. Their performance, which included a rousing goal line stand, allowed the score to be tied at the break.

Carter-Finley Stadium will be packed on Saturday when East Carolina and NC State meet for the 26th time on the gridiron.

However, during the second quarter, ECU suffered a significant loss when senior linebacker Quentin Cotton suffered a season-ending knee injury when the Tulane fullback missed a block and hit Cotton while he was stationed by the intended target. Wide Receivers coach Donnie Kirkpatrick termed the incident a “freak accident” that is unfortunately just a part of this game. Cotton, who had become the defense’s emotional leader, was playing what was one of the better games of his career. He had already registered an interception to end a Tulane drive and returned a blocked field goal 44 yards for a score.

With the loss of Cotton, it will mean an increased role for junior Nick Johnson. Johnson (13.5 tackles, 1.5 TFL) had already been rotating in at all three linebacker spots for Cotton, Pierre Bell and Jeremy Chambliss and playing about ten plays in each of those roles. Pierre Bell, who leads the team with 23 tackles and has 3.5 tackles for loss, will move to middle linebacker spot while Johnson will play the strongside linebacker. Cliff Perryman, Steve Spence and Melvin Patterson are also likely to see increased snaps as a result of the injury to Cotton.

The Pirates’ secondary suffered a few breakdowns against the Green Wave. The Tulane passing attack was the most potent the Pirates had faced thus far. Kevin Moore completed 21-of-37 attempts for 236 yards—which included a 47-yard touchdown to Jeremy Williams to knot the score at 14 early in the third quarter.

Defensive C.J. Wilson leads the team with five tackles behind the line and 2.5 sacks.

NC State (14.3 ppg, 250.3 ypg) has struggled severely on offense. The Wolfpack have not scored an offensive touchdown against a Division I-A/FBS opponent in over 13 quarters. They did put 34 points on FCS foe William and Mary, which was spurned by back-up Harrison Beck’s 246-yard passing effort.

The Pack’s problems have largely been the result of key injuries and inexperience at the quarterback position.

Redshirt freshman quarterback Russell Wilson emerged as the starter, but suffered a grade three concussion in the first half of the 34-0 loss at South Carolina. After missing the William and Mary game, he returned for the Clemson game and showed some good things. Wilson is 11-of-26 for 104 yards through the air and has rushed 17 times for 33 yards. He has the ability to keep plays alive and make plays with his legs.

Andre Brown, who hails from Greenville, is the team’s top rusher. Brown, who has come back strong after being injured last season, has run for 208 yards (4.0 ypc) and a score. Curtis Underwood, who has been forced to step up with Toney Baker (son of former Pirate running back Tony Baker) and Jamelle Eugene sidelined with injuries, has performed nicely. He carried the ball 11 times for 46 yards against the Tigers.

With Donald Bowen out, sophomore Owen Spencer has been NCSU’s top wide receiver. He is the only receiver with at least ten receptions and he has ten for 116 yards. The Pirates will also have to be wary of freshman T.J. Graham, who has 10.44 speed over 100 meters and definite big play potential.

Star tight end Anthony Hill has been sidelined with an injury suffered against South Carolina. George Bryan has caught eight balls for 73 yards and a touchdown in Hill’s absence.

If the Pack is unable to establish some semblance of a running attack against the Pirates, then it is possible that Harrison Beck could be inserted into the game to spark the passing attack if Wilson proves unable to do so. Daniel Evans, who threw for 335 yards against ECU last year, is currently third on the depth chart.

ECU & NC State Special Teams

Advantage: East Carolina

Both teams have had their inconsistencies in this extremely important facet of the game. The Pirates get the slight edge due to the fact that they’ve already produced two special teams’ touchdowns through three games. ECU beat Virginia Tech in the final two minutes with a blocked punt. It took an early 7-0 lead at Tulane this past weekend when C.J. Wilson blocked a field goal that Quentin Cotton scooped up and took 44 yards to pay dirt.

Each team has missed a PAT and the Pirates was returned for two points by the Hokies. Redshirt sophomore Josh Czajkowski handles the field goals for NC State. He is 3-of-5 on the season with misses from 25 and 49. His made attempts were from 22, 33 and 39. East Carolina has definitely missed the injured Ben Hartman, who has been out with a hip injury. Ben Ryan did hit from 42 yards against WVU, but he also had bad misses from 39 (against VT) and 43 (against WVU). Matt Dodge handled the first half against Tulane. He made his only PAT attempt and missed from 41 yards on his only field goal opportunity. However, Hartman has been kicking this week in practice and could potentially get back on the field this Saturday in Raleigh. Hartman was 13-of-22 last season. While he is striving to become more consistent on field goals, he does carry a school record of 59 straight PATs made into this season. Hartman also kicked game winning field goals versus North Carolina and Boise State in 2007.

The Pirates are netting 35.5 yards per punt. Matt Dodge has averaged 43.6 yards on 11 attempts. Even if Ben Hartman returns, expect Dodge to continue to handle the kickoff duties as well since Hartman won’t quite be at full strength. NC State’s net punt is 37.5 yards. Bradley Pierson, who also handles the kickoff duties, is averaging 39.6 yards after 20 boots. He has pinned the opposition inside the 20-yard line on five occasions.

Give the Pack a slight edge in the punt return game. Redshirt junior Geron James, who has averaged 10.2 yards on four returns, will miss the game. However, NCSU still has dangerous freshman T.J. Graham. Graham has brought back four punts for 37 yards. He also returns kickoffs and has returned ten for an average of 18.6.

Darryl Freeney handles the punt returns for East Carolina. He has two for 16 yards.

Dwayne Harris and Jonathan Williams give the Pirates threats in the kickoff return phase of the game. Harris has four returns for an average of 27.5 per—including a 45 yarder against Tulane that sparked ECU to a touchdown drive on its first possession of the second half.

Intangibles

Advantage: East Carolina

East Carolina is a veteran, experienced football team. The Pirates have won five consecutive games and have proven that they have what it takes to win the close ones against good teams.

Both teams will have to guard against being “too high” for this game, as there will certainly be no shortage of emotion for either team on Saturday at Carter-Finley Stadium. Many of these players played high school ball with each other. Each school wants to earn bragging rights, but more importantly recruiting leverage within the state.

The Pirates are putting in even more prep time than usual this week, as they’re eager to avenge last season’s loss in Greenville.

While ECU wasn’t sharp last week, it did what it had to do to win and has the experience of winning the close games on a big stage ( Boise State and Virginia Tech).

East Carolina-NC State Final Prediction and Analysis

While this rivalry isn’t one of college football’s longest running and most known, it’s probably about as intense as any you’ll witness. The teams have only met 25 times since the series began in 1970 with only two of those having been played in Greenville. Most of its meetings have not been broadcast on national television, but Saturday’s won’t fall into that category as the Pirates and Wolfpack will kickoff at noon on ESPN.

As Skip Holtz said earlier this week and as last year’s game proved, this game doesn’t differ from other rivalries in that you can toss out the records when these programs meet.

Expect a low-scoring contest where mistakes are magnified, not a 34-20 score like last season. While the Pirates will be without its defensive leader Quentin Cotton, they are sounder this season—particularly in the secondary. Last season, the Wolfpack scorched the ECU secondary for 335 yards. However, inexperienced quarterback Russell Wilson will be hard-pressed to duplicate that feat—especially since he won’t have the luxury of throwing to Donald Bowens (five catches for 93 yards vs. the Pirates last year).

If East Carolina can bottle up NC State’s running game the way it did last season—when it allowed only 49 yards on 28 carries—the Pack passing attack probably isn’t developed enough to consistently move the sticks and put enough points on the board to win.

The Pirates must eliminate the turnover bug that they suffered from last week. Another four turnover game and their unbeaten season will almost surely go up in smoke.

Look for the Pirates to establish the run, as they did against Virginia Tech and West Virginia. If they can muster 140-150 yards on the ground, Pinkney will have time to operate and lead ECU on time-consuming scoring drives like against the Hokies and Mountaineers.

NC State will reach the endzone for the first time in over three games versus FBS foes, but they won’t be able to muster enough offense to beat the Pirates for a second straight season.

This game could resemble the 2006 East Carolina victory in Raleigh where the game was close for the first half, but the Pirates took control of things after the break.

East Carolina 24 - NC State 13