East Carolina Pirates @ UCF Knights preview

Pirates look to remain atop the East with primetime ESPN win in Orlando

Date: Sunday, November 2, 2008

Time: 8:15 p.m. (EST)

Location: Bright House Networks Stadium (45,301); Orlando, FL

Television: ESPN

Records: East Carolina (4-3 overall, 2-1 CUSA); UCF (2-5 overall, 1-2 CUSA)

Rankings: None

All-Time Series Record: East Carolina leads 6-1

Last Meeting: Saturday, October 6, 2007— Greenville, NC— East Carolina 52 UCF 38

ECU @ UCF Injury/Personnel Report:

East Carolina

• WR Dwayne Harris, shoulder; probable
• DE Marcus Hands, back; questionable
• DT Khalif Mitchell, toe; questionable
• S J.J. Millbrook; questionable
• CB Jerek Hewett, shoulder; doubtful
• DE Scotty Robinson, foot; doubtful
• LB Quentin Cotton, knee; out
• LB Melvin Patterson, knee; out
• WR Jamar Bryant, suspended indefinitely; out
• RB Jonathan Williams, suspended indefinitely; out

UCF

• N/A

East Carolina @ UCF General Overview

East Carolina has experienced quite a ride the past two months. After their 3-0 start earned them a briefly occupied spot among the nation’s top 15, the Pirates dropped their next three games (@ NC State, Houston, @ UVA) and came to a crossroads in their season. ECU desperately needed to start the second half with a home win over Memphis. Holtz’s club accomplished that goal when it defeated Tommy West’s short-handed Tigers 30-10. Despite Memphis’ top two quarterbacks being knocked out within the game’s first 12 plays, it took a 10-7 lead into the locker room. However, the Pirates wore down the Tigers, who had their hands tied on offense, in the second half—outscoring them 23-0. While the win certainly didn’t turn any heads given the circumstances, it was exactly what the Pirates needed to boost their confidence before heading into a second open date in four weeks to prepare for their November stretch run.

East Carolina is a totally different team than it was earlier in the season. The Pirates have suffered a plethora of injuries, which has thrust several freshmen into the team’s two-deep.

Defending Conference USA-champion UCF sits at 2-5 and has lost five of its last six. Offensive struggles have overshadowed one of the league’s best defenses, but the Golden Knights still have plenty to play for. Their goal of repeating as CUSA champs still exists, as this Sunday’s game marks the first of five games against CUSA East foes.

Last Sunday, UCF used a 19-point second quarter to take a 19-14 halftime lead against Tulsa. However, the Knights’ upset bid was thwarted quickly in the second half and the Golden Hurricane won 49-19 after scoring 35 unanswered.

Last year’s game in Greenville was a shootout. UCF held a 28-17 halftime lead, but ECU forced five turnovers after the break and outscored the Knights, 35-10, to pull out the big 52-38 victory. However, after both teams lost its top playmakers—Chris Johnson (ECU) and Kevin Smith (UCF)—this year’s game may not even feature half of last year’s point total of 90.

The Pirates have prevailed in six of the seven meetings with the Knights. UCF’s lone victory in the series came in 2005 when it took advantage of five ECU turnovers to garner a 30-20 win in Greenville. This will be the third game played in Orlando. The others came in 1991 and 2006.

East Carolina Offense vs. UCF Defense

Advantage: UCF

After averaging over 30 points per game in 2007, the Pirates have seen their offensive production drop off significantly this season. They reached the 30-point plateau for the first time versus Memphis. ECU has been forced to be much more consistent on offense this season due to the absence of a playmaker like Chris Johnson. Last year, Johnson could bail the Pirates out and prevent them from having to methodically matriculate down the field.

Patrick Pinkney emerged as the starter at quarterback during the spring. This decision was affirmed by very efficient showings in his team’s strong start. However, Pinkney’s production began to decrease as teams began to crowd the line of scrimmage due to the absence of a vertical passing game.

Therefore, the two-quarterback system that ECU incorporated last year is once again being utilized. Against Memphis, Pinkney (62.9%-1,247-7 TD- 3 INT) started and played two series. Kass, who has thrown for 223 yards and two touchdowns, was inserted in the line-up for the Pirates’ third offensive series as has been predetermined by the coaching staff. He went on to play the remainder of the game. The strong-armed junior threw for two scores and managed the game very nicely. While he failed to connect on a couple of open deep throws, the threat alone spread the defense out and opened things up for the ground game. The rushing attack also benefited from the return of tackle Stanley Bryant, who is perhaps the team’s best offensive lineman, and Fred Hicks.

Kass and Pinkney will both play on Sunday night with the majority of the snaps going to whoever has the hot hand.

Explosion plays have been few and far between for East Carolina. The Pirates’ attack, which is in desperate need of play-makers, will now be without leading rushing Jonathan Williams, who posted personal best rushing marks the last two games and had gained 380 yards and five touchdowns on the ground, has been able to stay out of trouble while outside the lines. Fortunately, Norman Whitley is ready to step in and take over. Whitley, who has shown big-play ability by scoring touchdowns of 51 and 42 yards this season, ran for 60 yards versus Memphis on a career-high 15 carries. Senior Brandon Simmons and junior J.R. Rogers, who is as fast as anyone on the team, are also likely to see increased action.

As expected, the Pirates top option has been Dwayne Harris. Harris, who has caught at least four balls in every game this year, has done a little bit of everything. He has 45 receptions and 562 yards. However, the sophomore’s lone touchdown came on a 28-yard reception on a screen pass versus Memphis. Offensive coordinator Todd Fitch seeks to get the ball in Harris’ hands in a variety of ways. If the Knights can contain him, they have an excellent shot of minimizing ECU’s success.

Tight end Davon Drew is also a prime target in the passing game. Drew, who was a high school quarterback, possesses the versatility to align in the slot. He has hauled in 14 balls for 214 yards.

ECU desperately needs Alex Taylor, TJ Lee and Darryl Freeney to step up and provide the Pirate signal-callers with some more options in the passing game.

The Pirates will be going up against a very talented Golden Knights’ defense. UCF ranks first in CUSA against the run (117.6 ypg) and third overall (352.3 ypg).

The unit has forced 18 turnovers—including 14 interceptions. It is allowing 30 points per contest, but that is misleading due to games such as UTEP where the offense turned it over six times.

The secondary is particularly strong. Cornerbacks Joe Burnett and Johnell Neal are tied with Sha’reff Rashad for the team lead with three interceptions.

The defensive front is very stout with Bruce Miller and Lawrence Young leading the way. Young’s 44 tackles rank second on the team and 7.5 of them have occurred behind the line of scrimmage. Miller’s four sacks are tops on the team in that category.

Senior safety Jason Venson leads the team with 46 stops.

UCF Offense vs. East Carolina Defense

Advantage: East Carolina

George O’Leary and UCF can certainly relate to the Pirates and their recent offensive woes. While ECU is suffering from the lost of its playmaker in Chris Johnson, the Knights have found the going tough without running back Kevin Smith. Smith rushed for over 2,500 yards in ’07 and such a running game would have been an even bigger luxury this season since the Knights are also dealing with the loss of last year’s starting signal-caller Kyle Israel.

Both Michael Greco, who played some against the Pirates last season, and true freshman Rob Calabrese have competed for the starting job.

Greco, a junior, has completed just over 50 percent of his 83 attempts while throwing for 426 yards and four scores. The southpaw possesses excellent athleticism and has the ability to hurt you with his legs. He has netted 165 yards on 33 carries.

Calabrese received the starting nod at Tulsa and showed some good things despite being harassed all night. The Golden Hurricane was able to get to the true freshman nine times, but he showed toughness—physically and mentally. Calabrese was good when given time and finished 8-of-15 for 124 yards and two scores. He too has the ability to hurt you with his legs, as he ran for 86 yards against UTEP. The UCF offensive line has struggled and the Knights have allowed 23 sacks.

As coach George O’Leary stated, the Knights don’t ask their quarterbacks to win games, but just not to lose them.

Calabrese won’t be the only true freshman starting in the UCF backfield, as running back Brynn Harvey will be rewarded for his strong showing last Sunday against Tulsa when he ran for 91 yards on 24 carries in his first career start.

Sophomore Brian Watters is the top target in the passing game. He has caught 27 balls for 386 yards and three scores. Against Tulsa, he had seven catches for 121 yards—including a 62-yard touchdown. Rocky Ross, who has 13 catches for 180 yards, is also a viable option.

The UCF offense doesn’t possess much experience across the board and all the skill position starters are either freshmen or sophomores.

Defensively, the Pirates played better against Memphis. However, it is tough to gauge exactly how much improvement was shown since the Tigers lost their top two quarterbacks in the game’s first 12 plays and largely had their hands tied when their play-calling.

Safety Van Eskridge leads the team with 55 tackles. Linebackers Pierre Bell and Nick Johnson continue to perform well. Bell has registered 49 stops and seven for losses while Johnson has 45 tackles and six behind the line.

The defensive front, which has failed to get much pressure on the quarterback, will need to put some heat on the inexperienced Calabrese. Defensive end CJ Wilson and Zack Slate are prime candidates to accomplish the needed pressure. Wilson has a team-high 5.5 sacks and 10.5 tackles for losses while Slate has 3.5 sacks.

Injuries have forced eight freshmen into the two-deep depth chart. Linebacker Cliff Perryman will likely play the most significant role of the bunch. He has started the last two games after Jeremy Chambliss was not performing adequately.

ECU & UCF Special Teams

Advantage: UCF

Give the Knights an edge in the kicking game due to the presence of Conference USA’s top punt and kickoff return Joe Burnett. ECU will need to kick away from him, as he is averaging 15.2 yards on punt returns and 31.6 yards on kickoff returns. He has taken two kickoffs back for scores this season.

The Pirates will likely continue to use Darryl Freeney and TJ Lee to return punts since J.J. Millbrook is out with an injury. Freeney has had some struggles fielding the ball, but when he had fielded it cleanly he’s shown the potential to break one.

Dwayne Harris is averaging 22.5 yards per kickoff return for ECU.

Matt Dodge is averaging 43.4 yards per punt (37.1 net) for the Pirates while Blake Clingan averages 39.3 for UCF. Clingan has forced 13 fair catches and pinned the opponents inside the 20 on 18 occasions.

Intangibles

Advantage: East Carolina

Although it has lost five of its last six games, UCF still has the luxury of controlling its own destiny. With all five division games remaining, the Knights can win out and capture the East Division again. The players are confident in their ability to eliminate their mistakes and return to the title game. However, their stretch run must begin at home versus CUSA East co-leader East Carolina this Sunday night. UCF is tough at Bright House Networks Stadium. They are 2-1 there this year with their loss being a 30-24 overtime defeat to then ranked, rival South Florida.

East Carolina had last week off and the Pirates needed the extra practice time to prepare some young players for their first significant snaps this week. The team also had to deal with the suspension of Jonathan Williams, but team chemistry is likely better now that the running back is gone.

For a third consecutive season, East Carolina is atop CUSA’s East Division in November. After the Pirates suffered costly road losses when they were favored the past two seasons, they are looking to seal the deal this year. They should be confident after their 30-10 win the last time out.

East Carolina-UCF Final Prediction & Analysis

This primetime ESPN Sunday night match-up has major CUSA East implications. The next two games versus UCF and Marshall are crucial for East Carolina’s chances. On the other hand, UCF must likely win out, but at least take four of its last five to have a shot at repeating as champs.

For East Carolina to win, they must:

• Value the football—With UCF’s offense struggling, the Pirates can ill-afford to give the Knights any short fields to work with.

• Stretch the field—Against Memphis, Kass’ vertical throws spread the defense out. They must do this again versus UCF, who is the best in the league at stopping the run.

• Confuse Calabrese—With UCF starting a true freshman under center, ECU needs to get pressure. That should be possible considering Tulsa sacked Calabrese nine times.

• Prevent big plays—Without a high-scoring offense like Tulsa, ECU can’t give the struggling UCF offense any quick scores. They must earn everything.

For UCF to win, it must:

• Protect the passer—UCF has allowed 23 sacks this season.

• Help from Harvey—True freshman Brynn Harvey ran for 91 yards in his first career start.

• Prevent big plays— East Carolina’s offense has also had its share of struggles this season. UCF needs to force the Pirates to drive the field rather than scoring via quick strikes.

• Force turnovers—The Knights have forced 18 turnovers. They’ll likely need to force two or three in this one to give their challenged offense a short field.

The Pirates will fail to reach 30 points again, but UCF won’t be able to muster enough offense to pull out the much-needed victory. Norman Whitley will have his best game as a Pirate while Kass and Pinkney will team to throw for 200 yards.

East Carolina 24 - UCF 17