UCF vs. Southern Miss football preview

It’s a given that Central Florida’s defense of its 2007 Conference USA championship is gone. Now, hopes of getting to a bowl are on life support.

The Knights (2-6, 1-3) felt the crushing blow of the 13-10 overtime loss to East Carolina last week. They led 10-3 until the final two minutes before the Pirates scored and forced the extra period.

Now, it’s homecoming against Southern Miss Saturday at Bright Networks Stadium. But just like the Knights, the Eagles (3-6, 1-4) are also playing the chance to become bowl eligible. Six wins gets a team bowl eligible. But it doesn’t secure anything.

For the Knights, they are going to have to win out against Southern Miss, at Marshall, at Memphis and against UAB.

“No matter what game you play, there are usually six plays that make the difference in a game, and this is no different,’’ coach George O’Leary said. “The thing about football is you don’t know where the six plays are going to come from.’’

There have been no complaints about the defense this year. With 15 interceptions, the unit is fourth in the nation. In this age of the spread formations where defenses are challenged on every down, the Knights have surrendered only 343 yards per game, which is third best in Conference USA. They are second in pass defense and have collected the second most sacks with 21.

The one thing about the defense is that it has played well enough to give the Knights a chance in every game, except UTEP and Boston College. You could even argue that the defense did its part at Tulsa before it just got tired because it stayed on the field too long and ran out of gas in the second half.

There has been no better player than defensive end Bruce Miller who leads the team in sacks (4) and is tied for the lead in tackles for loss (7.5). They will need to continue to play well because they are facing one of the best offenses in the conference.

Southern Miss is third in the conference in total offense with 459 yards per game. Damion Fletcher leads the conference in rushing with 1,055 yards and seven touchdowns. That should be the interesting challenge because the UCF defense allows just 119 rushing yards per game.

Southern Miss quarterback Austin Davis has also been impressive throwing for 2,213 yards.

But with every game this season, it always comes down to what the anemic UCF offense can do. It has scored more than 20 points only twice, is second to last in red zone offense at 70 percent and is last in the conference in total offense at 237 yards per game. That’s more than 100 yards behind 11th place SMU.

The quarterback rotation between Rob Calabrese and Michael Greco should likely continue. Regardless, the passing game just hasn’t produced.

“I don’t think either quarterback has shown the consistency at the position,’’ O’Leary said. “It is young players trying make plays and they are not always executing the way you like them to.’’

The plan is pretty simple. The defense has to contain Southern Miss’ offense to the point where it can have a chance. The offense just has to make enough plays. But it is homecoming. So when in doubt, give the Knights a break.

Prediction: UCF 19 - Southern Miss 16

Notable:

• Despite the offensive woes, the Knights have scored a touchdown from beyond 50 yards in four consecutive games.
• The Knights are 19-9 all time on homecoming.

Southern Miss (3-6, 1-4) @ UCF (2-6, 1-3)

Time: 3:30 p.m.
Site: Bright Networks Stadium, Orlando
TV: None
Series: 4th meeting. Southern Miss leads, 2-1