East Carolina @ SMU

Pirate defense to receive road test against June Jones’ Mustangs aerial attack

Date: Saturday, October 10, 2009

Location: Gerald J. Ford Stadium (32,000); Dallas, TX

Time: 8 p.m. (EST)

Television: The MTN, MASN, WITN ( Eastern NC)

Records: East Carolina: 3-2 overall, 2-0 CUSA; SMU: 2-2 overall, 1-0 CUSA

Rankings: None

All-Time Series: East Carolina leads 2-0

Last Meeting: October 21, 2006— Greenville, NC— East Carolina 38 SMU 21

Injury/Personnel Report:

East Carolina

WR Jamar Bryant, concussion; probable

LG Terence Campbell, shoulder; questionable

WR Michael Bowman, arm; questionable

RB JR Rogers, knee; questionable

DL Antonio Allison, foot; out

SMU

CB Derrius Bell, concussion; out

General Overview

This weekend’s match-up will be just the third between the Pirates and Mustangs. East Carolina took the two previous meetings, which came in the 2005 and 2006 seasons.

The initial contest came in Skip Holtz’s first season in Greenville when the Pirates pulled out a 24-21 victory in their lone visit to Ford Stadium. The following year saw SMU bring a 4-3 mark to Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium, but East Carolina won that season-changing match-up, 38-21, in a campaign that concluded with a berth in the PapaJohns.com Bowl in Birmingham, AL.

ECU enters the game seeking a third straight league victory. The Pirates have produced a pair of five-point victories over CUSA foes UCF and Marshall the last two times out. Those wins have given last year’s champions the early edge in this season’s divisional race.

Meanwhile, SMU will be seeking to snap a two-game skid. The Mustangs missed out on a golden opportunity to improve to 3-0 in a 30-27 overtime loss at Washington State before falling at No. 11 TCU, 39-14, in the Battle for the Golden Skillet last Saturday.

East Carolina Offense vs. SMU Defense

Advantage: SMU

SMU has had plenty of struggles on defense, as the Mustangs are allowing just over 31 points and 400 yards per game. However, they still earn a slight advantage in this match-up due to the putrid Pirate attack they will be facing. ECU’s 21 points against Marshall was the most Holtz’s club had managed since its 29 against Appalachian State in the season opener.

East Carolina, which averages 21.4 points and a CUSA worst 298.6 yards per game, showed some positive signs last week at Marshall despite posting a scant 286 yards.

The Pirates’ improved production in the red zone—they were 3-of-3 with three touchdowns—was the difference in the game. ECU employed a new look by moving defensive tackle Linval Joseph into a lead blocking role in some of its short yardage and goal line sets. Their three scoring drives consisted of 68, 76 and 80 yards. Those were possible because the Pirates were 6-of-12 on third down. They’ve been surprisingly efficient in that area, as they’re converting at a 45 percent rate despite deficiencies in their passing and rushing attacks.

The rushing attack’s output was the best since its 189-yard day against Appalachian. The Pirates produced 155 ground yards and were boosted by senior Dominique Lindsay’s strong day. Appearing in his first game since West Virginia, Lindsay logged 76 yards on 18 carries while also catching three balls for 23 yards.

The improvement was even more necessary on a day that saw the Pirates’ passing attack continue to struggle. The inability to connect on deep balls continues to highlight the unit’s shortcomings. That threat was minimized even more considering Jamar Bryant didn’t even make the trip because of a concussion.

Patrick Pinkney was 14-of-23 for just 131 yards. He didn’t throw for a touchdown, but did throw his fifth interception. However, Pinkney did do something that he has rarely done the past two years—make a play with his legs. His decision to fake a bubble screen and take off, resulted in a 30-yard touchdown that provided what proved to be the winning points. For the season, Pinkney is completing just 55 percent of his attempts, which isn’t very good given the underneath nature of the Pirates’ attack.

Top playmaker Dwayne Harris continued to play a prominent role against the Herd. Harris, who had 11 offensive touches in the game, leads the team with 28 catches for 295 yards.

The Pirates will meet a Mustang defense that is giving up 31 points and 400 yards per contest.

The best way to sum up the SMU defensive unit is opportunistic.

While the Ponies are allowing quite a bit of production, they’ve been able to force opponents into 17 turnovers—including a league-high 12 interceptions. This nose for the football has helped them have the number one pass efficiency defense despite allowing over 260 yards per game through the air. Opponents are completing just 52.5 percent of their attempts.

The 12 picks are even more surprising when you consider SMU is last in CUSA with four sacks. The Mustangs have also managed just eight hurries.

SMU’s 3-4 scheme, which allows for well-disguised blitzes and stunts with its moving parts, will force East Carolina to limit the plays that Patrick Pinkney can check.

Texas A&M transfer Chase Kennemer leads the team with 41 tackles. The linebacker posted an incredible 18 stops in last week’s loss at TCU.

Strong safety Rock Dennis, who is tied for third on the club with 20 stops, has a team-high three interceptions.

SMU Offense vs. East Carolina Defense

Advantage: East Carolina

The Pirate defense has allowed just 31 points the last two weeks in low-scoring victories over UCF (19-14) and Marshall (21-17), but it will face a unique challenge this week in Dallas.

East Carolina coach Skip Holtz compared his defensive unit’s task of slowing down SMU’s high-powered run and shoot offense to a mid-season game with Navy. The analogy stems from the difficulty of mimicking the attack in practice.

The Mustangs average 26.8 points and 380 yards per game on the strength of CUSA’s second most productive passing attack (304.8 ypg).

True sophomore trigger man Bo Levi Mitchell throws it nearly 45 times a game and is completing right at 58 percent of his passes. He has thrown for over 1,200 yards and eight touchdowns. However, he’s failed to value the football at times as he’s thrown ten interceptions.

Mitchell’s top target is senior wideout Emmanuel Sanders. Sanders, who caught eight balls for 73 yards at TCU, has 43 catches for 466 yards. However, he has had just two touchdown receptions. The star wide receiver had eight receptions for 87 yards against the Pirates in Greenville in ’06.

He’s complimented by Terrance Wilkerson. Wilkerson has 14 catches and averages nearly 17.5 yards per reception. Aldrick Robinson also has 14 grabs for Jones’ high-powered offense.

The ground game is improved from ’08, but still needs plenty of work as SMU is still mustering just 75 yards per game. Against TCU’s stout run defense, the Ponies were held to minus 16 yards on 18 carries. A low total was even lower because of Mitchell being sacked five times. Prior to the TCU game, SMU had allowed just four sacks.

While the rushing attack needs to get better, the Mustangs do possess a playmaker in Shaunbrey McNeal. McNeal had 334 yards and is averaging 4.5 yards per carry. He has a long of 49.

The East Carolina defense has delivered much improved performances over the last two weeks. The biggest differences have been the increased hit the Pirate front has placed on the quarterback and the failure to allow the deep ball. The latter has largely been due to the presence of safety Levin Neal and corner Emmanuel Davis in the line-up. Davis had five tackles and a big fourth quarter interception in the Pirates’ narrow victory at Marshall.

The linebacking corps of Nick Johnson, Chris Mattocks and Jeremy Chambliss totaled 35 tackles against the Herd. Johnson tallied 16 stops against Marshall and is tied for the team lead with two interceptions. The Pirates must do a better job of getting off the field on third down. Opponents are converting at a 44 percent clip and the Herd moved the chains nine times in 18 opportunities.

Special Teams

Advantage: East Carolina

Give the Pirates a very slight edge in the all important kicking game due to the presence of punter Matt Dodge. However, this match-up looks pretty even and could play a huge role in what has the makings of a close game.

Dodge, who is netting nearly 37 yards per punt, has done a tremendous job of flipping the field for East Carolina this season.

Both Dodge and SMU punter Matt Szymanski—who handles all the kicking duties—will need to have strong days as the Pirates and Mustangs boast the top two punt return games in CUSA in terms of average per attempt.

The Pirates’ Travis Simmons and Mustangs’ Emmanuel Sanders don’t have many chances, but each averages over 20 yards per return. Simmons averages 21.4 on four attempts while Sanders averages 24.2 on six and has a 79-yard touchdown to his credit.

Szymanski has only attempted four field goals. He has made three with his lone miss coming from beyond 40 yards.Two of his three makes were beyond 40 and he has a long of 53.

His counterpart Ben Hartman didn’t attempt a field goal last week at Marshall and is 7-of-10 on the year with a long of 37.

Dwayne Harris and Jonathan Williams have done very little for East Carolina on kickoff returns. It could receive a boost in the next couple weeks with the expected return of Michael Bowman and J.R. Rogers. However, the Pirates will have to be wary of SMU deep man Bryan McCann. McCann is averaging just over 27 yards on 12 returns and has a long of 62.The Pirates blocked a field goal against UCF, but then had a punt partially blocked last week at Marshall.

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Intangibles

Advantage: East Carolina

Despite dropping its last two, the excitement will be high for the Mustangs as they will make their first appearance at Ford Stadium since their season opener against Stephen F. Austin more than a month ago. Since they rallied from a 23-14 fourth quarter deficit for a 31-23 win over the Lumberjacks, SMU played at UAB and Washington State before getting an open date prior to last week’s rivalry game with TCU in Fort Worth.

June Jones’ club will be seeking to snap its two-game losing streak and remain among the unbeatens— Tulsa and UTEP—in the West Division.

The atmosphere at Ford Stadium is improving, but it’s still not a very difficult place to play from a crowd noise standpoint. However, the Mustangs have proven tough to beat there. Last season, they took CUSA West powers Tulsa and Houston down to the wire before dropping close games.

Meanwhile, an experienced East Carolina team is seeking continued improvement and their eighth victory in their last ten Conference USA road games. The Pirates can move to 3-0 and remain the only undefeated team in the East Division.

SMU has shown the ability to win close games this year. The Mustangs did so against Stephen F. Austin and UAB. However, they were unable to hold a 24-7 lead at 1-4 Washington State and lost 30-27 in overtime.

ECU has won three games by five points or less this season and returns several players who won many tight games last season.

Final Prediction & Analysis

In Monday’s press conference, East Carolina head coach Skip Holtz said that he feels the intangibles—emotions, focus, attitude and preparation—were going to be even more important this week.

The fifth-year leader of the Pirates knows that his team is facing a new challenge and that SMU is likely to produce some yards through the air because that’s what they do.

However, what his Pirates can’t do is allow a plethora of big plays. The Mustangs have the potential to make the explosion plays, but ECU has to keep those to a minimum. It must force the Ponies to dink and dunk down the field and earn everything they get. If they do allow a deep ball, they must have a short memory.

They must make Bo Levi Mitchell get rid of the football quickly then tackle well in space—something they didn’t do when North Carolina victimized them with a short passing game.

Mitchell has experienced some accuracy issues so any pressure placed on the sophomore may result in a continued turnover trend. He threw two interceptions that resulted in touchdowns for Washington State.

Offensively, East Carolina will need to continue to progress. It will likely need at least their second biggest point total of the season to leave Dallas victorious. It would certainly help if the Pirates could produce an explosion play or two. They are currently like a baseball team that plays “small ball” with no homerun hitters where a premium is placed on efficiency.

Whether ECU is the beneficiary of those plays or not, it will need to carry on its trend of converting third downs and keep the ball away from SMU’s run-and-shoot offense.

For the Mustangs to improve to 2-0 in league play, they will need to force East Carolina to turn to its passing game to consistently move the football. This will help them get off the field and not be able to dominate the time of possession. Then, Bo Levi Mitchell will need to value the football better than he has through the first four games.

When it’s all said and done in Dallas on Saturday, East Carolina will win a hard fought contest against June Jones steadily improving SMU club. The Pirates will use a strong day by Dominique Lindsay and an improved passing game with the return of Jamar Bryant to control the clock. The Bucs will surpass 150 on the ground and 200 through the air. Their physical style will be too much for the smaller, less physical Ponies.

East Carolina 30 SMU 20