Conference USA Football Week Five (9/30/06) Preview

Due to Southern Miss and UCF playing on Tuesday night this week, that game was not able to be included in our conference wide preview. However, Southern Miss correspondent Cory Gunkel previewed it. The game will be recapped in our Conference wide recap, which is released each and every Sunday evening.

This is a light week in CUSA play as UCF and USM played Tuesday. East Carolina has an open date. Tulsa and Marshall also have open dates as they play mid-week games next week.

All times listed is EST.

Houston @ Miami (Florida) - 6 pm on ESPN2

Art Briles’ Houston Cougars will enter the fabled Orange Bowl on Saturday looking to win their fifth straight. UH (4-0 overall, 2-0 CUSA) is coming off a 34-25 home win over Oklahoma State and is off to its best start since 1990. They are receiving votes in the Top 25 polls. They are led by the passing of senior quarterback Kevin Kolb, who holds a few NCAA passing records.

On the other hand, Miami is reeling. The 1-2 Canes will be looking to bounce back from a 31-7 loss at Louisville. They dropped out of the Top 25 for the first time since 1999 following the loss and are coming off an open date where they focused primarily on getting Miami better.

Although Houston is 4-0, three of those wins came against Rice, Tulane and Grambling State. This is also the first time they will have left Houston. They have played on the road, but it was at cross-town rival Rice.

The Canes’ losses came to Florida State and Louisville. This will undoubtedly be the most athletic and best competition that the Cougars have seen to date.

Miami’s offense has struggled to score points in their two losses this season. Quarterback Kyle Wright has thrown for nearly 600 yards in three games, while completing almost 65 percent of his passes, but that hasn’t translated to points.

In order for Miami to beat a good Houston team, I think they will have to score at least 24-28 points. I foresee the Cougars being able to score 17-20 against the Canes. UH will play “THE U” tough, but the Canes will win in the Orange Bowl after two weeks to prepare.

#15 Tennessee @ Memphis - 12 pm ESPN

The Big Orange were upset by the Tigers back in 1996 and have won several close ball games over their in-state rivals in the past decade. The 1999, 2000 and 2005 games were decided by a combined seven points. Memphis also played last year’s game without star running back DeAngelo Williams.

UT is coming off a 33-7 win at home over Conference USA opponent Marshall, while UM was open last week. The open week was even more important for Memphis when you consider that head coach Tommy West fired defensive coordinator Joe Lee Dunn following the East Carolina loss.

The Tigers defense will be attempting to slowdown a much-improved Tennessee offense. Offensive coordinator David Cutcliffe’s return has lit a spark under the Vols. Quarterback Erik Ainge has completed nearly 67 percent of his passes for 1,065 yards and eight touchdowns; however, he has thrown five interceptions through four games. Robert Meachem and Jayson Swain have been his top two targets. The rushing attack has been solid as well and the Tigers will have to slow down LaMarcus Coker and Montario Hardesty.

In order for Memphis to be competitive, quarterback Martin Hankins will have to play with more consistency than what he has thus far. He has completed nearly 63 percent of his passes for almost 260 yards per game, but he has also thrown six picks. The rushing attack must continue to get production out of Joseph Doss, who comes in averaging 75 yards per contest.

I think Memphis will put up another good fight against their in-state rival, but the Big Orange’s improved offense will be able to put up enough points against a transitioning Memphis’ defense for the them to win by at least 10-14.

Troy at UAB

The Blazers enter this homecoming game versus Troy fresh off their disappointing 16-10 overtime loss to previously winless Mississippi State. Troy was demolished last week in Lincoln, losing to Nebraska by a score of 56-0. Such a large margin of defeat was surprising considering the fact that the Trojans took Florida State down to the wire in Tallahassee.

UAB is 1-3 and desperately needs to win this one before getting into the middle of a tough CUSA schedule. The Blazers’ offense hasn’t been to get much of anything going, and quarterbacks Chris Williams and Sam Hunt haven’t given them much production. The duo has not been able to make many plays down the field. The UAB offense is only averaging 11 points and 250 yards per game.

Defensively, Watson Brown’s club has been solid, holding opponents to 324 total yards per game, including 137 on the ground. Their most impressive stat has been their conference leading third down defense, as they have only allowed opponents to convert 32 percent of their attempts.

The Blazers will are battered and bruise and could be missing as many as nine starters this week.

UAB won last year’s game 27-7 in Birmingham. The Blazers’ offense will make enough plays to go with another solid defense performance and UAB will win a low scoring, nail biter at Legion Field—UAB 20 Troy 17.

Rice @ Army

After being competitive in its first two games versus Houston and UCLA, Rice has been cooked the past two weeks by traditional national powers Texas and Florida State. The Owls were outscored by a combined total of 107-14 in those two games.

What once appeared as a solid opportunity to earn a non-conference victory, doesn’t look as promising anymore. Rice has several key players injured as they head to West Point to face Bobby Ross’ Army team that is coming off two strong performances in the state of Texas. The most difficult thing the Owls are dealing with right now is the death of freshman defensive back Dale Lloyd on Monday morning.

The Black Knights most recent game was a 27-20 overtime win over Baylor. The previous week, Army nearly shocked Texas A&M in San Antonio. The Aggies needed a goal line stand as time expired to preserve the win.

The Rice offense is still struggling with the loss of quarterback Chase Clement. Joel Armstrong has filled in ok, but the Owls would be much better if he were at receiver. Running back Quinton Smith is having a productive year.

An improving quarterback in David Pevoto leads Army’s offense; however, looking at his season statistics, you cannot really see this. Pevoto is completing slightly over 55 percent of his passes and has thrown for 473 yards in four games, but he has thrown only one touchdown compared to seven interceptions.

Army will probably beat a struggling Rice team by a couple scores in West Point.

SMU @ Tulane

HOME SWEET DOME! The hometown Saints use this popular phrase and it is very applicable to the Tulane Green Wave as well. Chris Scelfo’s program has not played a home game since December 4, 2004. They will return the Louisiana Superdome this week to face an SMU team that in entering their conference opener red hot.

After a disappointing start, during which the Mustangs were outscored 59-9 at Texas Tech and North Texas, SMU has turned things around. Their offense appears to have found itself, having scored 100 points in the past two games. They won these games over Sam Houston State (45-14) and Arkansas State (55-9).

Quarterback Justin Willis has fueled the Mustangs’ offensive turnaround. He completed 33 of his 43 attempts in those two games while throwing for 399 yards and an astounding nine touchdowns.

Tulane signal-caller Lester Ricard is banged up, but will play. The experienced quarterback suffered a shoulder injury during the end of the first half at LSU last Saturday. He is also recovering from a bruised left hand (non-throwing) that was suffered against Houston in the season opener.

There is no doubt that this will be an extremely emotional game for Tulane and city of New Orleans. The Green Wave will be sky high and be playing with a tremendous adrenaline rush. However, that doesn’t last for an entire ball game and I see SMU overcoming this initial “Green Wave” of energy and winning its third straight.

Detailed SMU @ Tulane preview

New Mexico State @ UTEP

Following a disappointing loss at New Mexico, UTEP returns home to the Sun Bowl to face Hal Mumme’s New Mexico State Aggies. This is by no means a sure win for the Miners, but it is a critical game for them in a number of ways. It provides them with a home game that they should win if they play up to their potential, and the chance to improve in some areas, particularly running the football.

Quarterback Jordan Palmer has completed nearly 70 percent of his passes for 758 yards and seven touchdowns. He has thrown six interceptions. The Miners’ offense weakness has been the lack of a running game, which has put the heat on Palmer and the passing attack. Running back Marcus Thomas is only averaging 2.4 yards per carry, as he only has 118 yards on 50 carries. Johnnie Lee Higgins Jr. and Daniel Robinson are Palmer’s go-to guys at receiver.

The UTEP defense will face a challenge very similar to the one it faced a few weeks ago when Mike Leach’s aerial attack came to El Paso. Hal Mumme, whose teams have produced huge passing numbers wherever he has been (Kentucky, I-AA Southeastern Louisiana and New Mexico State), coordinates a potent Aggie passing game.

Sophomore Chase Holbrook has already thrown for 1200 yards in a mere three games. True, those games were against Southeastern Louisiana, New Mexico and Texas Southern, but it is impressive, nonetheless. He has completed 67 percent of his passes while throwing nine touchdowns and only two picks.

If NMSU can produce, and perhaps even if they can’t, any kind of run threat whatsoever, they should be able to put up a minimum three or four touchdowns on the road against UTEP. This one could very well feature around 1,000 yards or more of total offense, including 700 to 800 through the air. In the end, I see UTEP winning a fairly high-scoring affair over Mumme and his Aggies.