Conference USA Football Week Eleven (11/11/06) Preview & Picks

Week eleven in of the 2006 college football season features several interesting match-ups in C-USA that will impact the Conference USA football standings.

Marshall @ East Carolina

Saturday will mark the first time that Marshall has played in Greenville since the tragic plane crash of 1970 that killed 75 people—which included players, coaches, training staff, media and anyone else that was on board. The East Carolina administration is holding a ceremony prior to Saturday’s game during which a plaque commemorating the event will be unveiled.

However, this game has more than just historical significance. It is also for the first-place in the Eastern Division of Conference USA. A few weeks ago, not many people would have foreseen this match-up being so important, but since that time East Carolina and Marshall have gone on three-game winning streaks. The Pirates (5-4, 4-2) have beaten SMU, Southern Miss and Central Florida in that stretch, with the last two being on the road. The Thundering Herd (4-5, 3-2) began their streak with a win at Legion Field over UAB before returning home to defeat Memphis and Tulane in offensive explosions.

The difference for Marshall has been the arrival of some consistent offensive play. The Thundering Herd has totaled 114 points in their last three games, which equates to an average of 38 per contest. The 31 that Marshall put on UAB on the road is probably the most impressive performance when you take into consideration that they’re the best defense when compared to Memphis and Tulane. They have also proven that they can score points in bunches, scoring 21 points in the first and fourth quarters last week against Tulane.

So, what has the difference been? It has been a combination of a couple things. Number one, the Herd has really been able to get star running back Ahmad Bradshaw on track. Bradshaw finished with 138 yards on 22 carries. Against UAB, the talented Bradshaw, who combines speed and power, rushed for 242 yards and two touchdowns on 25 attempts. Then have also seen the emergence of a passing attack between the play of quarterbacks Bernie Morris and Jimmy Skinner. The two combined to throw for 340 yards and four touchdowns against Tulane while completing 25 of their 33 attempts.

The Pirates, on the other hand, have been winning more with defense. East Carolina has slowed down three tremendous backs—West Virginia’s Steve Slaton, Southern Miss’ Damion Fletcher and UCF’s Kevin Smith—this season. They held the Mountaineers’ Heisman Candidate to 78 yards while holding Fletcher and Smith under 60 yards each. The secondary, which is led by senior corner Kasey Ross, has also been solid.

Offensively, the Pirates have been up and down. They have moved the ball well, but have not done a good job of capitalizing on their opportunities. Brandon Fractious did rush for 128 yards on 23 carries versus UCF. Pinkney struggled against the Golden Knights, throwing for only 135 yards and throwing two interceptions. His top target, Aundrae Allison, caught eight balls for 67 yards and now has 44 receptions for 527 yards on the season.

There will be a very festive atmosphere for football this weekend at Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium in Greenville. Don’t be surprised if the Herd gets off to a fast start, as the Pirates could be overly emotional given that it is senior day. However, this team has done an excellent job of staying “humble and hungry”. The Pirates have stressed taking not looking ahead, while constantly saying their goal is to go “1-0” in their current week.

The Pirates will go 1-0 this week and achieve bowl eligible status.

East Carolina 31 - Marshall 21

UCF @ Memphis

The Golden Knights and Tigers meet this weekend at the Liberty Bowl with not much more than pride and building for next season at stake. UCF (2-7, 1-4) was expected to contend for the conference title after last season’s remarkable improvement. The Tigers (1-8, 0-5) have not been able to stop anyone defensively, having allowed at least 26 points in every game except their win over I-AA Chattanooga (33-14).

UCF has not been very good on defense either. However, the unit did have one of its better performances of the season last week at home versus East Carolina. They were incorporating more blitzing than they had up to that point and it was effective in keeping the Pirates’ veteran quarterback James Pinkney out of sync. They sacked him five times while intercepting him twice. They did struggle, once again, to stop the run. This allowed ECU to grind out the win, 23-10.

They will face a Memphis offense that has the potential to put up big numbers, but one that has also struggled with turnovers and missed opportunities. Quarterback Martin Hankins has thrown for 1,960 yards and 15 touchdowns, but has also thrown 12 interceptions. They have other good pieces in running back Joseph Doss (636 rushing yards, 4.1 yards per carry) and a group of talented young receivers that includes playmakers such as Duke Calhoun (30 receptions for 440 yards and four touchdowns).

This could be the week that they put the pieces together and have a breakout performance considering their facing a below average Golden Knights’ defense.

The UCF offense is also struggling to make the most of its opportunities. The Golden Knights’ struggles last week against the Pirates began when they could not get Kevin Smith going in the running game. The lack of a running attack allowed the Pirates to pin their ears back and get some pressure on quarterback Kyle Israel, who has assumed the starting role in place of Steven Moffett. He threw two interceptions against ECU, the last of which was returned 51 yards for the game-clinching touchdown. Star receiver Mike Walker caught nine balls in the game, but the Pirates did not surrender the big play to him as they did a year ago.

They will face a Memphis defense that is allowing 407 yards per game following last week’s game against USM in which it surrendered 486 total yards. Head Coach Tommy West fired defensive coordinator Joe Lee Dunn after the third game of the season. This week, the Tigers must focus first on stopping Kevin Smith. He is the cog that makes the Golden Knights’ machine run. If he has success, look for Mike Walker to make some big plays in the passing game.

These teams are out of the title hunt, bowl hunt. Both are struggling to salvage a few wins out of their season. Memphis is struggling more.

UCF 38 - Memphis 31

Southern Miss @ Tulane

The Golden Eagles (5-4, 3-2) are trying to keep pace with East Carolina and Marshall in the CUSA East race. They recorded a dominating 42-21 win at Memphis on Sunday night. Tulane (3-6, 1-4) is coming off a 42-21 loss in Huntington against Marshall. It was much closer than the USM game, as it was tied at 21 entering the final quarter of play.

USM exploded for 486 yards of offense against a struggling UM defense. Quarterback Jeremy Young completed 11 of 21 passes for 193 yards and three touchdowns. The running game was strong as expected, but it was seldom used Tony Harrison carrying the load rather than Damion Fletcher. Harrison, who had only rushed for 27 yards on this season prior to the game, totaled 138 yards on only 12 carries.

These performances allowed USM to explode for 35-point first half, which resulted in them cruising the rest of the way.

The Golden Eagles will face a Green Wave defense that gave up 340 passing yards to Marshall last week. Tulane is allowing an astounding 35.8 points per game. They have been unable to force many turnovers, having recorded only eight takeaways. Opponents have fumbled 15 times, but the Green Wave has only been able to recover four of those.

Tulane’s offense has been good enough to win with at times, but they have shot themselves in the foot having committed 21 turnovers. Senior quarterback Lester Ricard has completed 58.5 percent of his passes while throwing for 2,438 yards. He has a solid touchdown to interception ratio, as he has thrown 17 touchdowns compared to only seven picks.

Ricard relies on wideouts Demarcus Davis and Preston Brown, as they have combined for 76 receptions and nearly 900 receiving yards.

The Green Wave also possesses a strong rushing attack, as Matt Forte’ should break the 1,000-yard mark. Forte’ has rushed for 859 yards and seven scores while averaging an impressive 5.3 yards per carry.

While this is not one of Southern Miss’ best defenses, it is certainly anything but weak. The Golden Eagles rank in the top four in all major statistical categories. They have done a great job of bowing up in the red zone and on third down, as they rank first and second in the league in those two areas, respectively.

Tulane will put some points on the board, but Southern Miss’ defense is much better and will hold down a potent Green Wave offense enough to win in the Superdome.

Southern Miss 34 - Tulane 24

Rice @ Tulsa

This game is a reunion of sorts, but that’s the last thing that Todd Graham will have on his mind Saturday when his upstart Owls travel to Tulsa to face the Golden Hurricane. Graham, who was the defensive coordinator for TU from 2003 to 2005, takes Rice to Skelly Stadium with hopes of dissecting the defense that he helped build. The Owls (4-5, 3-2) are still mathematically alive in the title hunt, but a more realistic possibility is a bowl game. They have won four of their last five games to put themselves in this position. The Owls shocked the Miners, 37-31, last week in El Paso.

Graham’s old school, Tulsa (7-2, 4-1), has been the favorite to win the CUSA West, but they now find themselves behind Houston following last week’s 27-10 loss at Robertson Stadium.

Rice has been winning with offense. They’ve transitioned from the flexbone to their new spread attack nicely. While the passing game has been their strength for the majority of the season, their upset win at UTEP was largely due to their ability to run the football successfully. They gained 238 of their 471 total yards on the ground, which allowed them to grind out six first downs and chew up the last 7:30 of clock. Tailback Quinton Smith won CUSA Player of the Week honors with his 171-yard, two touchdown performance that was attained on a career-high 31 carries.

The Owls possess the nation’s leader in touchdown receptions in Jarett Dillard. Dillard, who has caught 13 touchdown passes, also ranks fifth nationally in receptions per game with seven and 11th nationally in receiving yards per contest with 91.2.

Rice quarterback Chase Clement gives the Owls a versatile threat, as he rushed for well over 100 yards in one game this season. He has thrown for nearly 220 yards per contest while completing 61 percent of his passes. Clement has recorded 17 touchdown tosses while only turning the ball over four times via interceptions. In other words, he has given the Owls a chance to win.

When the Owls haven’t won, it has been primarily because of their poor defense. The unit is giving up 429 yards per contest, but improvement has been seen in recent weeks. At UTEP, Rice held a potent Miner attack to only ten first-half points. Their saving grace at times has been their ability to force turnovers, as they have recorded 18 takeaways on the season. This includes an amazing 13 fumble recoveries.

They will need to continue to improve this week since they’re facing a talented Tulsa attack. The Golden Hurricane offense is usually a balanced one. They have a skilled quarterback in junior Paul Smith. Smith, who has completed nearly 66 percent of his passes for 1,816 yards, can beat you with arm or legs. He is benefited by the running game that is spearheaded by Courtney Tennial. The 5-9, 214-pound junior has rushed for 580 yards and nine touchdowns while averaging a solid 4.9 yards per carry.

Tulsa’s top receiving target is Idris Moss. Moss has totaled 37 receptions for 589 yards, but is yet to get into the end zone. Ryan Bugg, who has hauled in 25 passes for 303 yards, leads the team with four touchdown receptions.
In order for Todd Graham to upset his former school, a couple things will need to happen. The Owls must establish a running threat against a strong Golden Hurricane defense. This will sedate the pass rush and allow Chase Clement to throw the football. The Rice defense must continue to record takeaways since they struggle to record stops otherwise. Expect a strong effort from Dave Kragthorpe’s squad after last week’s 17-point loss at Houston.

They pulled off the 37-31 upset last week in El Paso, but Tulsa has a better defense than UTEP and that will be the difference in this one.

Tulsa 38 - Rice 24

Houston @ SMU

The Cougars (7-3, 5-1) now sit atop the CUSA West following a surprising 27-10 win over defending conference champion Tulsa. The fact that UH won wasn’t all that much of a surprise, but it was rather the way in which they did it. Art Briles’ team rushed for a shocking 227 yards and O’Brien Award candidate Kevin Kolb was solid as usual as he went 16 of 21 for 244 yards.

SMU (5-4, 3-2) is coming off a 22-9 win at home over UAB. The Mustangs used another solid showing by freshman signal-caller Justin Willis and a strong defensive effort to defeat the Blazers in Dallas.

Houston’s potent attack is led by senior quarterback Kevin Kolb. Kolb, who has thrown 22 touchdowns and only three interceptions, does the little thing that you expect of someone with his experience. He has thrown for nearly 3,000 yards through 10 games, as he has 2,852 while completing just less than 70 percent of his attempts.

Donnie Avery and Jeron Harvey are the two receivers that Kolb normally hooks up with. Avery leads the team with 44 receptions and Harvey averages 17.4 yards per catch. The duo has caught eight touchdowns between them.

The running game has really come on strong in recent weeks. Anthony Aldridge and Jackie Battle have combined to rush for 1,100 yards and 17 touchdowns. Aldridge is averaging an unheard of 11.2 yards per carry, having rushed for 572 yards on only 51 attempts.

The SMU defense is composed of two extremes. The Mustangs are one of the nation’s best against the run, only allowing 81 yards per game. However, they struggle severely at defending the pass. Opponents are throwing for 263 yards a game, which puts SMU in last place in CUSA at defending the pass. They must find a way to get pressure on Kolb; therefore, look to DT Adrian Haywood and DE Justin Rogers.

Redshirt freshman Justin Willis gives SMU an athletic quarterback that can beat you his passing or running abilities (or a combination of the two). Willis, who has thrown for 20 scores, is connecting on 71.1 percent of his passes while racking up 1,421 yards. He has only been intercepted four times, giving him a superb 5:1 touchdown to interception ratio as a freshman.

Emmanuel Sanders, who has 36 receptions, leads the team with seven touchdown catches. Bobby Chase is also a threat.

James Mapps is the Mustangs’ biggest running threat. Mapps has 317 yards and is rushing an average of 5.1 yards every time he carries it.

The Houston defense turned in one of its best games against Tulsa. UH held Tulsa to only 249 total yards, this was definitely a high point in what has been an up and down season. The Cougars are giving up 347 yards per game, but have made their living by forcing 18 takeaways.

Houston must be ready to play in this one. Phil Bennett’s Mustangs will be playing for bowl eligibility and would love nothing more than to knock the Cougars from the top of the West Division of CUSA while staying in the race themselves. In order for this to happen, SMU’s weakness must become its strength. This means that they must slow the passing game and force the Cougars to turn to their ground attack. Houston must continue to run the ball on offense. Defensively, they must not allow Willis to hurt them with his legs.

Kolb and the UH passing attack will be too much in the end.

Houston 31 - SMU 20

UTEP @ UAB

The Miners and Blazers are both entering this inter-division CUSA match-up off losses a week ago. UTEP (4-5, 2-3) was upset by the Rice Owls, 37-31, in El Paso. UAB (3-6, 2-3) lost a 22-9 decision last Tuesday at SMU in which they failed to extend their lead when the opportunities presented themselves. UTEP is all but eliminated from the CUSA West race, but there is still the chance that they can become bowl eligible. UAB is still in the CUSA East race, but they really need this one if they want to keep their hopes alive.

The Miners could not stop Rice when it counted last week, as the Owls ran for 238 yards. UTEP allowed 471 yards of total offense. The defense was subjected to a 19-play, 7:30 “death” drive that ended the Miners’ hopes. They must improve their tackling while continuing to do what they’ve done all year—force takeaways. Mike Price’s club leads the league with 20.

Chris Williams’ and the Blazers’ offense struggled last week at SMU. They have been plagued by inconsistency all season. One week they can run, the next they can’t. The same applies for the passing game. They have done one thing consistently, and that is not put points on the scoreboard. Watson Brown’s squad is only scoring 18.4 points per contest. If they are going to improve their production, they must get the running and passing games clicking simultaneously. The biggest thing, however, is for them to maximize their scoring opportunities. This is something that they didn’t do at SMU.

The Miners’ offensive attack is led by quarterback Jordan Palmer. Palmer, who has passed for 2,447 yards, has thrown 19 touchdowns compared to 11 interceptions.

Johnnie Lee Higgins, Jr. should post an 1,000-yard season, having caught 58 balls for 930 yards through nine games. He has nine receiving touchdowns on the season.

UTEP’s downfall has been their failure to run the football successfully. Marcus Thomas is only averaging 3.5 yards per attempt.

The Blazers’ defense performed well for the most part against SMU, allowing only 258 yards on 49 plays. This was encouraging after poor showings against Marshall and Rice in their previous two games.

If UTEP wants to go to a third consecutive bowl, they must win this one. The experienced Palmer and Higgins will allow them to win this one.

UTEP 30 - UAB 20