As the regular season winds down, and the NCAA Tournament field is beginning to become clearer and clearer, Conference USA is in the same boat as the MEAC or the SWAC — they each are only guaranteed one bid to the Big Dance. It sounds sad, but it’s true: if Selection Sunday was today, Memphis might be the only team from C-USA to get a bid. UAB is no lock, and UTEP and Houston don’t have the numbers to garner serious consideration right now. However, Selection Sunday is obviously not today, and there is plenty of time left for the “Big Four” to strengthen their profiles and boost their at-large chances.

Right off the bat, you can eliminate the following teams from any sort of NCAA Tournament consideration (unless they win the conference tournament): Rice, Central Florida, Tulane, Marshall, Tulsa, SMU, Southern Miss, and East Carolina. Each of these squads has RPIs in the 200s and all have records below .500. I can’t see any of them making even the NIT. That leaves Memphis, UAB, UTEP, and Houston. Let’s look at their profiles to determine where they are going to end up on the night of March 12th.

Memphis: The Tigers are obviously going to make the NCAA Tournament. They have one of the best profiles in the country, and own wins over Alabama, UCLA, Cincinnati, Gonzaga, and Tennessee. Memphis is going to be in the running for a #1 seed, and are pretty much guaranteed one if they win out the rest of the season. However, their conference schedule is extremely weak as a result of the host of bad teams within Conference USA and their last five games are not going to be the easiest of roads to navigate. Games against Tulane and Tulsa are walks, but a road trip to UAB and home games vs. UTEP and Houston could pose problems. Of course, the Tigers should win these games, but it is not guaranteed. UTEP has beaten UAB already this season; Houston owns wins over LSU and Arizona; while UAB played Memphis close their first meeting this season. If they win those games and then the Conference USA Tournament, they will get a #1 seed. If they lose one game, though, a #2 seed is more likely.

UAB: The Blazers looked very good for a bid a couple of weeks ago, but they were blown out last week by UTEP on the road, and now sit in third place in the conference. Their profile is lacking in several areas. They don’t own a Top 50 win, and their best road win is over Nebraska. In addition, their road record is 5-4. Those aren’t the most attractive numbers to the committee. On the other hand, they have beaten Colonial contenders Old Dominion and Virginia Commonwealth, and fellow bubble teams Nebraska and Houston. Their RPI is in the 50s, but their SOS is awful. The Blazers have 4 games remaining. Three games should be blowouts (Southern Miss, SMU, and Marshall), but the one key contest left is a home date vs. Memphis. If they win that game, consider that their ticket to the Big Dance. If they lose to the Tigers, and then don’t win the conference tournament, they could be on the wrong side of the bubble come Selection Sunday.

UTEP: The Miners are in interesting case. They are 8-1 in the conference, good enough for second in the league, one game back of Memphis. However, they were only 6-5 in the non-conference and have terrible power numbers. Their RPI is in the 90s and their SOS is in the high 100s. The drawbacks to their profile are abundant. They have bad losses to New Mexico, Louisiana Lafayette, and Texas Tech. If you are counting at home, that’s three sub-Top 100 losses. That is far too high for an at-large bid. Their best non-conference is over Pacific, while their best road win is over New Mexico State. Impressive, I know. On the positive side, they are second in the conference. The Selection Committee might have a hard time selecting UAB over the Miners, considering UTEP beat the Blazers and are likely to finish better in the standings. UTEP has five games left, including three probable wins (Rice, Tulsa, UCF) and games against Memphis and Houston. Like UAB, if the Miners somehow pull of a win over Memphis, they could get into the NCAA Tournament. Moreover, they have to avoid a sweep at the hands of Houston by beating the Cougars down the stretch. If they go 4-1 and don’t win the conference tournament, UTEP will finish 12-2 in the conference and 18-7 overall (going into the conference tourney). Gaudy record, but the lack of quality wins and weak power numbers will put this team in the NIT.

Houston: Four games into the season, Houston was looking pretty solid for an NCAA Tournament (if you can say that on December 10th). However, after a 3-1 start including wins over LSU and Arizona, the Cougars went 5-4 over their next nine games, which included losses to South Alabama, UNLV, Rice, and Central Florida. That stretch will likely come back to haunt Tom Penders’ group. The Cougars have won seven in a row, giving them an outside shot at an at-large bid if they can win out. Winning out, though, includes beating UTEP and Memphis—on the road. Even beating UTEP and losing to Memphis wouldn’t be enough. Houston would have to go 4-0 to finish the season and then reach the finals of the Conference USA Tournament. It’s not going to happen. They have very good power numbers (RPI in the 50s, great non-conference RPI and SOS), but the Cougars have too many bad losses to get an NCAA bid.

There are the profiles of the teams in contention for an NCAA Tournament berth. One team is a lock, one team would be in if the Tournament started today but could be sitting in the NIT in a few weeks, while the other two still have a lot of work to do. What’s my prediction? I hate to say it, but it’s looking like Conference USA is going to be a one-bid league this season. Too bad—Memphis could have used some friends in the Big Dance.

Other Conference USA Notes and Observations

• UTEP looked very impressive in its dismantling of UAB last week. John Tofi dominated the interior with 14 points, 15 rebounds, and 4 blocks. Jason Williams demonstrated his versatility with 14 points, 9 rebounds, 4 assists, and 1 steal. UAB’s press did force 15 turnovers, but the Blazers were outrebounded 50-22. I mean, UTEP did have the advantage of the inside, but a plus-28 rebound margin? That’s ridiculous. Moreover, UAB only had 5 assists as a team. That’s below Squeaky Johnson’s season average.
• While we are on the topic of UTEP, why did the Miners play against Alabama A&M on Tuesday? What good did that do? Even though they won, all it did was lower UTEP’s RPI and SOS. Interesting schedule, to say the least.
• Lost in Houston’s recent success is the weak level of competition it has been against. Six of the seven straight wins were against teams with an RPI of 207 or less. Only UTEP was a respectable opponent, and that game was at home. However, Oliver Lafayette has begun to play better again after a four-game stretch in which he averaged only 6 points per game.
• East Carolina may be 1-9 in the conference, but only one of those losses was by more than 10 points. The Pirates are more competitive than their record would suggest.
• For the conference’s sake, hopefully Rice finishes .500. They are 5-5 right now, and have two winnable games left against UCF and SMU. Beating UTEP and Houston on the road, though, is probably out of the question. Could an NIT be in the cards for the Owls?
• In last week’s column, I announced my all-conference team. However, after writing it, I realized that I had a huge omission. Rice’s Morris Almond deserves a spot on the team, while Shawne Williams’ recent struggles could leave him off of it. I apologize for the error.

Conference USA Basketball Game of the Weekend

Rice Owls at UTEP Miners

Morris Almond vs. Jason Williams? Should be a joy to watch. UTEP is one of the hottest teams in the conference and are fighting for a shot at an at-large bid, while Rice is just trying to get to .500 in the league and possibly receive an invitation to the NIT.

Prediction: UTEP 71, Rice 58