East Carolina @ NC State - View the complete Week 13 C-USA football preview

Date: Saturday, November 25

Location: Carter-Finley Stadium (57,583); Raleigh, NC

Time: 7:00 pm (EST)

Television: ESPNU

Records: East Carolina (6-5 overall, 5-3 CUSA); NC State (3-8 overall, 2-6 ACC)

East Carolina puts pressure on NC State quarterback Jamie Barnette during the Pirates' 50-29 win over the Wolfpack in 1996 in Charlotte.

Rankings: None

All-Time Series Record: North Carolina State leads 14-9

Last Meeting: November 27, 2004 – Charlotte, NC – North Carolina State 52 East Carolina 14

Injury/Personnel Report:

East Carolina
WR Jamar Bryant- Probable (Thumb/Leg)
LB Quentin Cotton- Probable (Ankle/Achilles Tendon)
RB Dominique Lindsay- Probable (Knee)
DE Shauntae Hunt- Probable (Knee)
WR Bobby Good- Questionable (Foot)
OT Eric Graham- Doubtful (Knee)

North Carolina State
OG Curtis Crouch – Probable (Head)
C Leroy Harris – Out (Ankle)
DT DeMario Pressley – Out, (Wrist)
DE Ray Brooks - Out, (Elbow)
LB James Martin - Out, (Dislocated bone in wrist)

East Carolina @ NC State - Series History and General Overview

This rivalry could be as intense as just about any you’ll find. The difference is that the Pirates and Wolfpack, for various reasons, have not played on a consistent basis. The two schools have met seven times in the past two decades—playing in 1986, 1987, 1991, 1996, 1997, 1999 and 2004. East Carolina trails in the series, 14-9, but has won four of the last six.

North Carolina State’s last win in the series was in 2004 when the Wolfpack and Pirates met in Charlotte to conclude their seasons. NCSU drubbed East Carolina, 52-14, in the final game of the John Thompson era.

The Pirates’ last win over the Wolfpack was in 1999. North Carolina State was making its first trip to Greenville and East Carolina saw that they left with a loss, beating the Wolfpack, 23-6. NCSU fired head coach Mike O’Cain shortly thereafter.

The most memorable game in the series, at least for East Carolina fans, is the January 1 st, 1992 Peach Bowl. Both teams entered the game highly ranked and it looked as though NC State might spoil the end to East Carolina’s best season ever. The Pirates trailed 34-17 with only 8:41 remaining in the game, but they believed. Having adopted the slogan “We Believe”, ECU produced a remarkable rally, scoring 20 unanswered points to capture a 37-34 victory over their rival. ECU finished that season with an 11-1 record and ranked ninth in the nation.

The last time the Pirates visited Raleigh was in 1997. NCSU, which was led by current St. Louis Rams’ wide receiver Torry Holt, won that meeting 37-24. The game was 24-24 late in the fourth quarter before the Wolfpack scored the go-ahead and game-clinching touchdowns.

This year’s game, once again, features a coach that is on the hot seat. NC State’s Chuck Amato, who is in his seventh season at his alma mater, desperately needs a win and that still might not be enough to save his job at this point.

Skip Holtz and his staff have closed the talent gap between the two programs during their short time in Greenville, but the Wolfpack still hold a talent advantage over the Pirates. However, NCSU is having a tough time maximizing their talent.

NC State, despite its 3-8 record, is a dangerous team because of the talent present. The Wolfpack have lost six games in a row since improving to 3-2 after a win over Florida State; however, five of those six losses were by eight points or less.

East Carolina comes in at 6-5 after suffering a crushing last-second loss at Rice. The Pirates have also had their share of close losses—losing to Navy by five (28-23), UAB by five (17-12) and Rice (18-17). They are seeking to solidify a bowl spot with a win over their rival.

East Carolina Offense vs. NC State Defense

Advantage: NC State

A few weeks ago, East Carolina’s offense may have had a slight advantage in this match-up. However, for various reasons, it has regressed in recent weeks. The Pirates were only able to muster 17 points and 301 yards against a Rice defense that was allowing 35 points and 450 yards coming into last weekend’s game.

East Carolina’s offensive struggles have largely been due to the inconsistent play of the offensive line. The Pirates have run the ball well at times, but their spotty success in the rushing game has really hurt ECU in short yardage and red zone situations. This has resulted in the Pirates only scoring touchdowns on 19 of their 38 trips inside the red zone.

Senior Brandon Fractious anchors the ground game. Fractious has 583 yards on the season and is averaging 4.4 yards per carry. He had 83 yards on ten attempts last week at Rice, but did not see the field in the second half. The exact reason for that has not been revealed, but Skip Holtz did say during his weekly press conference on Monday that Fractious and Lindsay would be the Pirates’ running backs this week. ECU also likes to use speedster Chris Johnson on wide runs. James Pinkney has also proven to be a running threat, as he has rushed for 224 yards and four touchdowns.

The offensive line will most likely be without tackle Eric Graham. Graham suffered a knee injury in the Pirates’ loss at Rice. The loss made a noticeable difference, as replacement Lance Neisz was flagged for holding in the end zone that resulted in a safety for Rice.

East Carolina’s aerial attack has carried them, but it has still been too inconsistent. The Pirates are averaging 231 yards per game through the air, but were held to 83 yards last week by a poor Rice defense. Quarterback James Pinkney was limited to a 10-of-17 performance, which included two interceptions and one touchdown. Pinkney has completed 61.2 percent of his passes while throwing for 2,438 yards, but he has thrown ten interceptions compared to only nine touchdowns.

This inconsistency has probably been partially because of the inconsistent offensive line play. Pinkney has been sacked 18 times, but has been pressured and knocked down a lot more.

His top two targets in the passing game are Aundrae Allison and Phillip Henry. Allison has 56 receptions for 612 yards on the season, but he has been limited to only three touchdown receptions. Allison is an excellent runner after the catch and can turn a big gain into a touchdown. Ask West Virginia.
Although not a gamebreaker like Allison, Phillip Henry also has good speed and has hauled in 33 passes for 478 yards and two touchdowns.

The Wolfpack’s defensive numbers are pretty impressive. They are only allowing 21.9 points and 314.7 yards per contest, but it hasn’t been enough with their struggling offense. They limited North Carolina to only 260 yards and produced a fumble recovery in last week’s game.

NCSU’s linebackers are the strength of its defense. Senior Patrick Lowery, who is tops on the team with 95 tackles, leads them. 58 of his tackles are unassisted and he has recorded 8.5 tackles for losses.

The Pirates’ “tattered and torn” offensive line, in the words of Skip Holtz, will also have to contend with senior defensive tackle DeMarcus “Tank” Tyler. Tyler, who stands 6-feet 2-inches tall and 305 pounds, has 47 tackles on the season. This includes 7.5 tackles for losses and two sacks.

Defensive end Martrel Brown leads the Wolfpack with six sacks. Brown, a 6-2, 290-pound junior, has also posted six tackles for losses.

The Wolfpack has an experienced secondary, featuring AJ Davis and Jay Sutton at the corners and Miguel Scott at free safety. Scott leads the group with 55 tackles, 2.5 tackles for losses and an interception.

NC State Offense vs. East Carolina Defense

Advantage: East Carolina

The NC State offense has been more productive with Daniel Evans under center, but they’ve still been far too inconsistent and unproductive to win football games. Turnovers and the inability to run the football well on a regular basis have stifled their progress. The Pack is averaging only 17.6 points and 302.8 yards per game.

NCSU has a stable full of talented running backs, which are led by Toney Baker and Andre Brown. The Wolfpack has still only been able to rush for just over 120 yards per contest. At any rate, the duo is dangerous and they must be contained. Brown attended Greenville Rose High School, which is only a couple miles from ECU. Baker has 636 yards and four touchdowns on the season, while averaging 4.4 yards per carry. Brown has toted it 112 times for 616 yards, which equates to 5.5 per attempt. He has scored five times.

The lack of a rushing game has placed excessive heat on sophomore quarterback Daniel Evans and the NCSU passing attack. Evans, who is the son of former Wolfpack signal-caller and current analyst on the Wolfpack Radio Network, has thrown for 1,657 yards since taking over for Marcus Stone. He has only completed 52.1 percent of his attempts; however, he has failed to take care of the football, throwing 11 interceptions compared to only six touchdowns.

North Carolina State’s leading receiver has been junior tight end Anthony Hill. The 6-6, 265-pounder has caught 41 balls for 431 yards. John Dunlap (6-2, 210) and Darrell Blackman (5-10, 209) give the Wolfpack two speedy playmakers at wideout. Blackman, a former tailback, has made 25 receptions for 316 yards and two scores. Dunlap leads the team with four touchdown receptions and has 28 receptions for 371 yards on the season. The duo is not only fast, but they are tremendous athletes and can really go up and get the football.

They will face an East Carolina defense that has made much improvement this season. The Pirates are allowing 20.9 points and 336.5 yards per game. They have really clamped down on opponents rushing attacks lately, but struggled in all phases last week against Rice’s spread attack. ECU surrendered 458 yards to the speedy Owls, which included 179 on the ground. Quinton Smith rushed for 115 yards on 21 carries. The Pirates were also hurt by Rice’s mobile quarterbacks, which ran for around 60 yards in the game.

Rice did not complete a good percentage, going 23-of-45 in the game, but they threw for 279 yards. The Owls’ Jarett Dillard is similar to the type of athletic receivers the Pirates will face this week. ECU’s primary weakness in defending the pass has been its lack of a pass rush. It recorded two sacks against Rice, but also forced an interception in the red zone due to the pressure placed on Clement.

The Pirates have forced 25 turnovers, including 15 interceptions.

The secondary is senior laden and talented. Strong safety Pierre Parker leads the unit with four picks. Senior corner Kasey Ross has recorded three interceptions and has returned two of them for scores, each of which was over 50 yards. ECU’s other corner, Travis Williams, also has two picks.

East Carolina’s leading tackler is sophomore linebacker Quentin Cotton. Cotton, who has registered 64 tackles on the season, has made 7.5 tackles behind the line of scrimmage.

The Pirates’ sack leader is 6-4, 265-pound freshman CJ Wilson. Wilson has really been playing well after starting to see the field more and more as the season has progressed.

Reserve strong safety Kyle Chase and starting free safety Jamar Flournoy give ECU two sure tacklers. Flournoy is second on the team in tackles with 63. Chase has posted 37, 29 of which have been unassisted.

Special Teams

Advantage: Even

The kicking game will be critical in what figures to be a close ballgame. NC State has the edge in the return game. Darrell Blackman is averaging 29.8 yards per kick return and has taken one 95 yards for a touchdown.

East Carolina’s Chris Johnson normally handles the kickoff returns for the Pirates and has averaged 26.6 yards per return on 15 returns. He took one 96 yards for a touchdown at Southern Miss.

Blackman also handles the punt returns for the Wolfpack. He is averaging 9.9 yards per return on 19 opportunities and has taken one back 65 yards for a score.

Steven Rogers is the Pirates’ punt returner. He doesn’t possess Blackman’s ability to take it the distance, but has made good decisions and is averaging a solid 6.2 yards per return on five returns.

East Carolina’s punt and kickoff coverage teams have been suspect in recent weeks. The Pirates allowed USM’s Jasper Faulk to return four punts for 115 yards, while Rice’s Mike Falco returned two kickoffs for 81 yards last week.

John Deraney handles all the punting and kicking duties for NCSU. Deraney has connected o 11 of his 15 field goal attempts, including 4-of-7 from 40 yards or longer. He has a long of 54.

Deraney has forced 14 touchbacks on kickoffs, while averaging 38.9 yards per punt on 68 attempts. He has pinned opponents inside their 20-yard line on 21 occasions and has forced 16 fair catches.

Robert Lee, who was a preseason Lou Groza Award candidate, has had a disappointing season. The senior placekicker is 14-of-22 and has a long of 48 yards. He has made five of his nine attempts from the 40 to 49-yard range.

Lee’s back up, freshman Ben Hartman, has connected on 3-of-4 attempts, which includes a long of 47 yards.

Ryan Dougherty, a Ray Guy award candidate, is the punter and kickoff specialist. The senior comes into the game averaging 43.9 yards per boot on 38 punts. He has a long of 72 yards and has pinned opponents inside their own 20 on eight occasions. He has also forced 12 fair catches.

Intangibles

Advantage: East Carolina

East Carolina is still playing for a bowl bid and possibly a conference championship, depending on what happens when Marshall plays Southern Miss in Hattiesburg on Saturday.

ECU’s destiny with regards to the CUSA title hunt is in Southern Miss’ hands, but the Pirates do control their bowl destiny. A win over NCSU would make Holtz’s squad, 7-5, and a lot more appealing to the various bowl officials.

The Pirates have not played poorly in consecutive games this season and I don’t foresee that happening now. They have too much riding on this game. They are playing for more than just in-state bragging rights and leverage in recruiting.

At 3-8, NCSU is playing for a coach on the hot seat in Chuck Amato. Who knows what the future holds for the Wolfpack coach? Athletic Director Lee Fowler said as recently as a few weeks ago that he was 100 percent behind the Amato regime.

At any rate, NCSU will want to finish on a strong note for this reason, as well as the fact that it is the seniors’ final home game at Carter-Finley Stadium.

I don’t think you have to worry about either of these teams being ready to play this game. I believe each team’s players are firmly aware of what the game means on several different levels (rivalry, recruiting leverage, etc.).

The Wolfpack just lost to bitter rival UNC-CH, 23-9, and want to wash that taste out of their mouths.

Final Prediction

All signs indicate that this should be a competitive, low-scoring football game. If you’re a gambler, I wouldn’t touch this game.

Which East Carolina team is going to show up? Will the Pirates be able to contain Andre Brown and Toney Baker? Will the ECU offensive line give Brandon Fractious room to run and Pinkney time to pass against a solid NC State defense?

Expect the Pirates to play well and slow down State’s ground attack enough. After all, they held WVU’s Steve Slaton to only 80 yards.

Although each team’s defense has the advantage over the opposing offense, East Carolina’s offense has a little more potency in its passing game and that will be the difference in this one.

James Pinkney will throw for around 200 yards and the Pirates will run it well enough to slow down the pass rush.

East Carolina 20 - North Carolina State 16