East Carolina vs. SMU

Date: Saturday, October 21, 2006

Location: Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium (43,000); Greenville, NC

Time: 3:00 pm

Television: None

Records: East Carolina (2-4 overall, 1-2 CUSA); SMU (4-3 overall, 2-1 CUSA)

Rankings: None

All-Time Series Record: East Carolina leads 1-0

Last Meeting: October 15, 2005- East Carolina 24 SMU 17

Injury/Personnel Report:
East Carolina suffered another loss to a key player in their loss to Tulsa. The Pirates lost WR Bobby Good due to a broken foot that he sustained during pregame against Tulsa. He actually played the entire game with the injury, catching five balls for 48 yards. WR Jamar Bryant will also be absent from the Pirates’ line up against SMU, as he is still suffering from a thumb injury. DE Shauntae Hunt remains doubtful with a knee injury. DT Brandon Setzer and WR Aundrae Allison are both questionable, as they have a knee injury and high ankle sprain, respectively. RB Chris Johnson, DT Wendell Chavis, and LB Jeremy Chambliss are all probable. Johnson played versus Tulsa after missing the UVA game with turf toe. Chavis is battling a knee injury, while Chambliss has been dealing with a back injury. QB James Pinkney is battling a sore elbow. The Pirates could also be without CB Travis Williams. He missed the Tulsa game after being suspended indefinitely due to a violation of team rules. Skip Holtz said that he is unsure of when Williams will be reinstated.

SMU could be without a few players on Saturday at East Carolina. WR Zach Sledge could possibly be suspended and is questionable. RB DeMyron Martin has been out with a hamstring injury, but is probable for this week’s game with the Pirates. Defensive ends Cory Muse (knee) and Justin Rogers (neck), along with RB Jessie Henderson are all questionable.

East Carolina/SMU General Overview

Southern Methodist enters this game red hot, having won four of their last five ball games after suffering a very disappointing 0-2 start. They defeated Marshall, 31-21, last week and their only loss in that five game stretch was their narrow loss at UTEP (21-24). Their offense struggled in their 0-2 start, but it seems to have found its stride during their recent run.

East Carolina is coming off a 31-10 loss to defending conference champ Tulsa. The Golden Hurricane, which is tops in CUSA, shut down the Pirates’ offense. Defensively, ECU was worn down by a huge and talented Tulsa offensive line. The Golden Hurricane rushed for 160 yards in the second half, finishing with 234 for the game.

Last year, the Pirates went to Dallas and defeated the Mustangs, 24-17. ECU forced five SMU turnovers, including three fourth quarter interceptions. The Pirates gave SMU opportunities to tie the game and force overtime in the final minutes by not being able to pick up first downs, but the Pirate defense rose to the challenge by intercepting SMU’s Romo two times in the final two minutes of the game. Quarterback James Pinkney was 15 of 22 for 225 yards and an interception through the air. While he did not throw a touchdown pass, Pinkney had three rushing touchdowns in the win. Phillip Henry caught 5 balls for 123 yards and Aundrae Allison hauled in seven receptions for 78 yards.

East Carolina Offense vs. SMU Defense

Advantage: EAST CAROLINA

The Pirates were held to 241 yards of offense last week by Tulsa, which boasts CUSA’s top defense. ECU didn’t have many bright spots in the game, but one was perhaps RB Brandon Fractious’ ten carry, 61-yard performance. Another was the continued solid play of wide receiver Bobby Good, who caught five passes for 48 yards. Good caught five passes for 102 yards the previous week against UVA.

East Carolina has shown that it possesses the ability to run the football and be a good offense, but has struggled to receive consistent offensive line play due to experience issues. This has kept senior quarterback James Pinkney on the move, often throwing on the run out of the pocket.

The Pirates’ running game currently features a quad-attack of tailbacks. Chris Johnson, Brandon Fractious, Brandon Simmons, and Michael Hickman all recorded carries against Tulsa.

Quarterback James Pinkney is battling a sore elbow, and that combined with absence of wide receivers Aundrae Allison and Jamar Bryant made it more difficult for the Pirates’ to stretch the Tulsa defense vertically.

That duo could be back versus SMU, which would give the Pirates’ offense a needed boost. SMU’s defense has allowed opponents to throw for large amounts of yardage this year (261.9 per game) and the Pirates certainly have the firepower to do so provided the offensive line gives Pinkney time. Mustangs’ corner Devin Lowery did intercept three of Marshall’s Bernie Morris’ passes in the SMU win over the Thundering Herd.

Defensive ends Patrick Handy, Troy Therien, and Kyle Griffin stepped up beautifully in the absence of starters Justin Rogers and Cory Muse. Strong safety Joe Sturdivant has recorded 28 tackles in the past two games.

SMU Offense vs. East Carolina Defense

Advantage: EVEN

The Mustang offense has improved considerably since the first two games of the season and so has the East Carolina defense. SMU is averaging nearly 28 points per game, and is led by quarterback Justin Willis. Willis, a redshirt freshman, has completed just over 70 percent of his passes and has thrown for 1,049 yards. His most impressive passing stat is his touchdown to interception ratio of greater than five to one, having thrown 16 touchdown passes as opposed to only three interceptions. Willis has also rushed for 179 yards and two scores on 58 carries.

The team’s leading rusher is James Mapp. Mapp has run for 232 yards on 49 carries. The Mustangs’ top two receivers are Emmanuel Sanders and Bobby Chase. They have each caught 24 balls for over 300 yards apiece. Sanders has five touchdown receptions, while Chase has two. They both have receptions over 50 yards this season.

The East Carolina defense had been constantly improving from game-to-game, but might it may have taken a small step backwards with its second half performance against Tulsa.

One of the Pirates’ biggest issues has been the inability to get pressure on the quarterback. The secondary has continued to perform well under highly regarded and experienced coach Rick Smith.

Overall, the Pirates are surrendering 358 yards per game, but they’ve done an excellent job forcing turnovers and are near the top of the nation in takeaways with 16 (nine interceptions and seven fumble recoveries). They have not done a very good job on third down, as opponents have converted on 44 percent of their attempts. Opponents have also converted a perfect ten of ten on fourth down.

They are led in the secondary by cornerback Kasey Ross and strong safety Pierre Parker, each of who has two interceptions. Quentin Cotton is the Pirates’ leading tackler with 45, including four for losses. Marcus Hands, Mark Robinson and Scotty Robinson are tied for the team lead in sacks with 1.5 each.

Special Teams

Advantage: SMU

The Mustangs definitely have the edge in the return game, but I now also give them the edge in the kicking and punting aspects as well. A few weeks ago, this edge would have gone to East Carolina or at the very least been an even match-up, but I give SMU the nod with the recent struggles of placekicker Robert Lee.

The punting match-up is a great one as East Carolina’s Ryan Dougherty and SMU’s Thomas Morstead are both averaging over 44 yards per boot. Dougherty enters the game with a 44.3 yard average on 21 punts, which includes a long of 72. He has pinned the opponent inside their 20 on eight occasions, while forcing ten fair catches. Morstead is averaging 44.1 on 29 punts, with a long of 65. He has had 13 punts downed inside the 20 and has forced four fair catches.

Robert Lee, a Lou Groza award candidate, has missed three field goals in his last two games. He is 6 of 11 on the season, but has only connected on one of his four attempts from 40 to 49 yards.

Meanwhile, SMU’s Thomas Morstead has made seven of his ten attempts, including a long of 50 yards.

Kellis Cunningham handles the kickoffs for SMU and nine of his 35 attempts have been touchbacks. Ryan Dougherty kicks off for ECU and eight of his 26 attempts have resulted in touchbacks.

SMU possesses a potent return game. The kickoffs are brought back primarily by Jessie Henderson. Henderson has returned ten for an average of 36.9 yards, which includes a 100-yard touchdown. ECU’s kickoff return men are Jerek Hewett and Markeith McQueen. You could also see Chris Johnson.

Intangibles

Advantage: EAST CAROLINA

After losing to Tulsa, East Carolina is now 2-4 overall and 1-2 in Conference USA. This means that in order to become bowl eligible, the Pirates must win at least four of their remaining six games. This will be no small task as four of the six are away from Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium. In order for this to happen, this is one that East Carolina can’t let slip by. SMU is in better position at 4-3 overall and 2-1 in CUSA. They certainly have plenty to play for as a bowl berth and conference championship are well within their grasp. However, I think East Carolina’s desire to rebound after last week’s poor performance in its loss to Tulsa and to stay very much alive in the bowl hunt gives the Pirates the edge. It is also the Pirates’ homecoming on Saturday.

Final Prediction

East Carolina will be strongly motivated to come out strong against and collect a win over SMU after getting shut down by Tulsa a week ago. SMU is hot, but the Pirates—which might even have star receiver Aundrae Allison back—will be able to recover from their poor offense showing against Tulsa to put up strong numbers versus SMU. The defense will also rebound and perform better than it did in the second half against Tulsa. I predict that the Pirates will have 350-400 yards of offense, with at least 250 through the air and 125-150 on the ground. Defensively, the Pirates will slow down a hot Justin Willis and limit the Mustangs to under their average of 325 total yards.

I’ll say: East Carolina 27 - SMU 17.