2007 Liberty Bowl Preview

UCF (10-3, 7-1; CUSA) vs. Mississippi State (7-5, 4-4; SEC)

December 29, 2007 @ 4:30 PM (EST) – ESPN – Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium – Memphis, Tennessee

This game features the reuniting of two friends in UCF coach George O’Leary and Mississippi State coach Sylvester Croom—who spent time together as San Diego Chargers assistants under Bobby Ross. Both are in their fourth season leading their respective programs and they combined to produce a couple of the more surprising stories in college football this season.

O’Leary, who unfortunately may be best known for falsifying some information on his resume’ that ultimately cost him the head coaching position at Notre Dame, has proven to be one of the better coaches in the game today. While he has suffered two losing seasons during his tenure in Orlando, he has also guided the UCF program to its only two bowl appearances. The Golden Knights captured the Conference USA crown this season by defeating Tulsa for a second time at the brand new Brighthouse Networks Stadium. They carry a seven-game winning streak—a stretch during which the Knights were rarely challenged—into Memphis and will be looking to earn their 11 th victory of the season.

Meanwhile, Croom captured some much-needed success in Starkville. While he had inherited a tough situation, the natives were reportedly growing restless after experiencing three straight three-win seasons. However, after losing four games by a field goal in 2006, the Bulldogs won three contests (@ Auburn, Alabama, Ole Miss) by five points or less this year. Throw in another league win at Kentucky and three non-conference triumphs and MSU is going bowling for the first time since 2000—which landed Croom SEC Coach of the Year honors.

Mississippi State has managed to slow down a couple of the nation’s best backs already this season in Tulane’s Matt Forte (47 yards on 14 carries) and Arkansas’ Darren McFadden (88 yards on 28 carries). The Bulldogs will now attempt to contain the country’s top rusher and consensus All-American—junior Kevin Smith. Smith, who has carried the ball 32 times per contest, sits at 2,448 yards—only 180 shy of former Oklahoma State star Barry Sanders’ single-season record. Despite his eye-opening numbers and record-setting year, there are still those who question just how good Smith is due to him playing in a league where seven of 12 teams gave up 190 yards or more per game on the ground.

Smith and the much-improved offensive line of UCF will face what will quite possibly be their stiffest test of the year. Mississippi State possesses a very tough and physical front. It includes defenive end Titus Brown, who has recorded eight sacks and 13.5 tackles behind the line. Brown has been battling a knee injury, though.

When your offense has someone like Smith that it can hang its hat on, you just need your quarterback to be steady and play within himself. That is what Kyle Israel has been for the majority of the season. He has completed 60 percent of his passes for just over 2,000 yards while throwing 15 touchdowns compared to only eight interceptions. Rocky Ross and Kamar Aiken are a couple of his prime targets. Ross has 48 catches for 631 yards while Aiken has 32 grabs totaling 574 and five scores.

As a team, the Bulldogs have largely won with defense. They allow 24.8 points and 341 yards per game (28 th nationally). Derek Pegues and Anthony Johnson are tied for the team lead with three interceptions apiece. Pegues is also very dangerous as a punt returner, as he turned the Ole Miss game around with a game-tying 75-yard scoring jaunt with only a couple minutes to play.

Offensively, Croom’s club certainly hasn’t been anything spectacular—averaging 22.4 points and 305 yards per game. However, they’ve been good enough to get the job more often than not despite turning the ball over 27 times.

Redshirt freshman Matt Carroll started the final eight games at quarterback and brought some more consistent play to the position. Carroll concluded the regular season with a 53.2 percent completion percentage and threw for 1,353 yards. He tossed nine scoring strikes and was picked off six times. No, they’re not gaudy numbers, but when you’re a freshman in America’s toughest conference—they’re acceptable.

Carroll will need to receive the aid of a quality rushing attack from the tandem of Anthony Dixon and Christian Ducre. Dixon is only 20 yards shy of 1,000 while Ducre has totaled 467 yards (4.4 per carry).

The UCF defense was not nearly as stingy as Mississippi State’s, but they were one of the best units in an offensive-minded CUSA. The Golden Knights are giving up 379 yards and nearly 28 points per contest. They’ve forced 27 turnovers—23 of which have been picks. Cornerbacks Joe Burnett and Johnell Neal have six and five interceptions, respectively. The UCF secondary benefited from an excellent pass rush that produced a CUSA-leading 38 sacks. Defensive ends Leger Douzable and Bruce Miller have combined for 14.5 sacks and 22 tackles behind the line.

If it is a close, low-scoring defensive struggle—which is quite possible—both teams appear to be in good shape in the kicking game. Mississippi State’s Adam Carlson is 9-of-12 on the season and 8-of-9 from less than 40 yards. Meanwhile, his counterpart—UCF’s Michael Torres—is an amazing 19-of-21 with only one miss from less than 50 yards.

Smith will be hardpressed to reach his average in this one, but he won’t need to. The Golden Knights’ attack is two-dimensional enough to move the ball effectively via either the air or ground versus a pretty stout MSU defense. To notch their eighth win of the season, the Bulldogs will need to capitalize on all scoring opportunities and possibly get a touchdown—or at least flip the field—via turnovers or the punt return game.

UCF will head into 2008 with an eight-game win streak after collecting what most would likely consider its best win of the season in Graceland.

UCF 24 - Mississippi State 17

Find more 2007-2008 College Bowl previews at College Sports Fans.