East Carolina @ UCF - View the complete Week Ten C-USA football preview

Date: Saturday, November 4

Location: Florida Citrus Bowl (65,438); Orlando, FL

Time: 4:00 (EST)

Television: WITN (local in Eastern NC) (delayed)

Records: East Carolina (4-4 overall, 3-2 CUSA); UCF (2-6 overall, 1-3 CUSA)

Rankings: None

All-Time Series Record: East Carolina leads 4-1

Last Meeting: October 29, 2005- Greenville, NC- Central Florida 30 East Carolina 20

Injury/Personnel Report:

 East Carolina
LB Orlando Farrow (Torn Achilles tendon); out (season)
WR Bobby Good (Broken foot); out
DE Shauntae Hunt (Knee); out
RB Dominique Lindsay (Knee); doubtful
WR Jamar Bryant (Thumb); doubtful
LB Quentin Cotton (Ankle and Achilles Tendon); doubtful
WR Kyle Johnson (Leg); doubtful

UCF
CB Joe Burnett (Leg); questionable/doubtful
C Cedric Gagne-Marcoux; questionable/doubtful

East Carolina @ UCF General Overview

This marks the sixth meeting in this young series, one that the Pirates lead 4-1.

The first meeting in the series was in 1991 when the Pirates, who were on their way to their best season ever at 11-1, defeated the then I-AA Golden Knights 47-25 in Orlando. UCF actually took an early lead in that game, but ECU roared back to lead 47-14 before cruising to the easy win.

The 1993 contest is one that most Pirate fans will probably remember. East Carolina won the game 41-17, but it was a costly victory for the Pirates. They lost their star freshman quarterback Marcus Crandell due to a broken leg that was suffered on a late-hit. ECU went on to lose eight of its next nine and finished the season with a dismal 2-9 record.

In 1994, the I-AA Golden Knights came to Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium with hopes of upsetting the Pirates. East Carolina came into the game at 5-4 and playing for a Liberty Bowl berth via winning the Liberty Bowl Alliance. ECU got the 23-20 win, but it was much tougher than what they had hoped for.

Two years later, UCF sophomore quarterback Daunte Culpepper and his Golden Knights fell to the Pirates, 28-7, in Greenville.

Last year’s 30-20 victory in Greenville marked the first time that UCF had beaten ECU. The Golden Knights were able to prevail despite allowing the Pirates to gain 542 yards of total offense. This was due to East Carolina committing six turnovers—three interceptions and three fumbles. ECU led 20-17 with just over 12 minutes left in the game. ECU rushed for 272 yards, including 107 by Brandon Fractious on only 10 carries. UCF’s Mike Walker had a huge day, catching seven passes for 110 yards and two touchdowns.

This year’s match-up features a role reversal from last season. Last year, it was the Pirates who were under .500 coming into the game and trying to get things on track. This time around, the Pirates are sitting atop the CUSA East Division and UCF is 2-6.

East Carolina Offense vs. UCF Defense

Advantage: EAST CAROLINA

The UCF defense has been atrocious this season. The Golden Knights are allowing 33.2 points and 429 yards per game. They surrendered 516 yards in their 51-31 loss at Houston last week. Opponents are rushing for 178 yards per contest. UCF’s opponents are converting an astounding 52.8 percent of their third down attempts. To make matters worse, they have only forced eight turnovers.

The Golden Knights could be without their top cover corner and leading tackler Joe Burnett. Burnett suffered an undisclosed leg injury in last week’s loss to Houston.

Free Safety Sha’reff Rashard is second in the league in interceptions with four.

This ailing unit will have their hands full this week, as they will face a multi-dimensional Pirate attack. Veteran quarterback James Pinkney is having a good senior campaign. He has thrown for 1,950 yards while completing 60.6 percent of his passes with seven touchdowns and six interceptions.

Pinkney’s top target is the explosive Aundrae Allison, who ESPN NFL Draft analyst Mel Kiper is projecting as first or second round sleeper. Allison, whose numbers are down a little due to him missing the Virginia and Tulsa games, has 36 catches for 460 yards and three scores.

The Pirates’ rushing attack has been hit or miss. Against Southern Miss, they were able to generate enough on the ground to increase their productivity as an offense. Brandon Fractious, who has rushed for 305 yards on 83 carries, leads them. They will also use Brandon Simmons, particularly in short yardage situations, and Michael Hickman. Dominique Lindsay is expected to dress out against UCF, but it remains to be seen if he will play. Lindsay has been out since suffering a knee injury in game two at UAB. Hopefully the Pirates can get by without playing him and he can be redshirted.

With the way the Golden Knights have struggled, you have to wonder if they might tweak their system and have something up their sleeves for the Pirates. They are traditionally a four down linemen team, but they might possibly transition to a three down linemen scheme this week. ECU has struggled against West Virginia and Tulsa this year, both of which incorporate a 3-3-5 scheme.

UCF Offense vs. East Carolina Defense

Advantage: UCF

Both the UCF offense and East Carolina defense come in playing very well as of late. George O’Leary has opted to rotate quarterbacks, as Steven Moffett and Kyle Israel have both seen significant playing time. Against Houston, the Golden Knights posted 530 yards of total offense, but still failed to make plays at critical points in the game according to O’Leary.

“Obviously from the game Saturday, offensively, I thought that they had their moments where they played very well and then others that I thought where we could have used a first down or could have used some better play by some people, we did not get that,” O’Leary said.

The Golden Knights production has increased significantly in the past two weeks against UH and Rice. It has been partially due to the re-emergence of Kevin Smith in the running game and also the result of more consistent play at quarterback with Kyle Israel.

Israel has completed 61.1 percent of his passes while throwing for 772 yards with four touchdowns and 2 picks. Moffett can throw it well, but his arm has been a little more erratic. The senior has completed 55 percent of his attempts and has thrown for 1,001 yards. He has thrown for six scores and has been intercepted five times. Both of these quarterbacks possess the ability to hurt you with their legs also. Israel ran eight times for 47 yards against Houston.

Kevin Smith, a 6-1, 210-pound sophomore, has rushed for 791 yards and is averaging 4.9 per carry. He has six rushing touchdowns.

Israel and Moffett, much-like James Pinkney, have the luxury of throwing to a big-time receiver. However, Mike Walker and Aundrae Allison offer different things. Walker, who gives UCF a physical receiver with nice size at 6-2, 200 pounds, has caught 60 balls for 766 yards and four scores. Last year, he burned the Pirates, catching seven passes for 110 yards and two touchdowns.

The East Carolina defense held Southern Miss to 180 yards last week. They limited freshman running back Damion Fletcher to 59 yards on the ground, while also holding Jeremy Young to less than 80 yards through the air.

This unit has continued to progress as the season has gone on. They are allowing 330.1 yards per game, which is the fewest an East Carolina defense has given up in quite some time. There are still some areas that the Pirates need to see some significant improvement in, however. They have allowed opponents to convert 10 of 11 fourth downs. Also, despite only surrendering 161.1 per game through the air, they don’t get enough pressure on the quarterback. They have only recorded nine sacks on the season. They really need Marcus Hands or someone to step up and address this issue.

Special Teams

Advantage: East Carolina

Give the Pirates the edge in the kicking game, particularly since UCF punt return man Joe Burnett might likely miss Saturday’s game. Burnett is averaging 12 yards per return on nine attempts and has a long of 50.

East Carolina has not had much of a punt return game this season. They have had a rotating door at the position due to poor decision-making and injuries. Steven Rogers is handling the duties presently. He has made one poor decision, which was when he decided to fair catch a punt at the seven-yard line against SMU.

Curtis Francis and Kenny Jackson bring back the kickoffs for UCF. Francis has returned 17 for an average of 22.9 with a long of 59. Jackson has brought back nine for 147 yards.

Chris Johnson and Jerek Hewett are the deep men for East Carolina. Johnson returned one 96 yards for a score against USM last week. On the season, he has a 28.5-yard average on 12 attempts. Hewett also possesses very good speed, as he is on the ECU track team.

The Pirates have a pair of excellent place kickers. Currently, redshirt freshman Ben Hartman is handling the extra points and field goals over senior Lou Groza Award candidate Robert Lee. Hartman, who made a career long 47-yarder last week at Southern Miss, is 3-4 on field goals with his lone miss coming from 42 against USM.

Senior Ryan Dougherty handles the punting and kickoffs. Dougherty, who is one of the nation’s best punters, is averaging 43.6 yards per punt on 30 attempts. He has a long of 72 and has pinned opponents inside their 20-yard line on eight different occasions. He has also forced 11 fair catches. Nine of Dougherty’s 37 kickoffs have been touchbacks.

UCF’s Michael Torres is 8 of 13 on the season, but has not made a field goal longer than 34 yards.

Aaron Horne has had a solid season punting the football for the Golden Knights. He comes into the game with a 38.7-yard average on 30 attempts. He has pinned opponents inside their 20 on 12 different occasions, while also forcing 13 fair catches.

Beucher kicks off for UCF and six of his 35 kickoffs have gone for touchbacks.

Intangibles

Advantage: East Carolina

ECU gets the edge here because they’re still playing for the conference championship. They’re in the drivers seat with three games to play. If the Pirates take care of business they will be the East Division champions. Their goals of conference and bowl titles are still well within reach and they control their own destiny at this point. As if that isn’t enough, they also have the motivation of last year’s 30-20 loss to UCF during which they committed six turnovers. Finally, they are a homecoming opponent again, so needless to say that is also a motivating factor.

For UCF, it is do-or-die as far as their bowl aspirations are concerned. They must win out to have a chance. This one is big because their last three are games that are all very winnable. They will undoubtedly be fired up since it is homecoming in Orlando.

Final Prediction

There should be plenty of scoring in this one.

For East Carolina, the keys will be:

• Run the football well against a poor UCF run defense.
• Force UCF to go the distance by not permitting big plays.
• Get pressure on the passer. If ECU does not do this, Israel and Moffett could have a big day with a receiver like Mike Walker.
• Protect the football and don’t give the UCF defense any confidence.
• Get the ball to Aundrae Allison and exploit the absence of UCF’s best cover corner Joe Burnett.

For UCF, the keys will be:

• Stop allowing the big play.
• Get consistent play out of its quarterbacks.
• Continue to run the ball well with Kevin Smith.

UCF will continue to play pretty well offensively, but their defense will not be able to slow down James Pinkney and the Pirate offense. Expect Fractious to have 100 yards on the ground and Allison to have a big day receiving. Pinkney will throw for at least 250-300 yards.

East Carolina 38 - UCF 24