Conference USA Football Week Ten (11/04/06) Preview & Picks

East Carolina @ UCF

These two teams have seasons that are headed in opposite directions. East Carolina (4-4, 3-2) is coming off a huge 20-17 overtime win over their old nemesis Southern Miss. The Pirates now stand all alone atop Conference USA’s East Division following SMU’s 22-9 win over UAB on Tuesday night.

UCF (2-6, 1-3) has struggled to stop anyone this season. Last week, the Golden Knights lost in a shootout at Houston, 51-31. They finished with 530 yards of offense in the loss; however, they committed seven penalties, four turnovers and were unable to get the stops when they needed them.

They will have their hands full this week when a multi-dimensional East Carolina offense rolls into Orlando. Senior quarterback James Pinkney has thrown for 1,950 yards while completing nearly 61 percent of his passes. Pinkney’s top target is Aundrae Allison, who has caught 36 balls for 460 yards and three touchdowns. The running game has been handled by committee. The Pirates’ leading rusher is Brandon Fractious, who has finished with 305 yards on 83 carries.

Running back Kevin Smith and wide receiver Mike Walker had huge days for UCF. Smith carried the ball 31 times for 163 yards for three touchdowns. Walker, who is near the top of the nation in receptions, has 60 receptions for 766 yards and four touchdowns on the season.

The Pirates are striving to take care of business and maintain their lead in the East Division while UCF is playing for survival. If they lose, they’re out of contention for a bowl. The Golden Knights are too talented for the Pirates to shut down, but the ECU defense is undoubtedly better than the UCF defense. James Pinkney and company will score enough against a defense that is allowing 33.2 points and 429 yards for the Pirates to improve to 5-4 in Orlando.

Pirates 38 Golden Knights 24

East Carolina @ UCF detailed preview

Tulsa @ Houston

This one could decide the Conference USA West Division title. Tulsa, the defending conference champion, enters at 7-1 overall and 4-0 in CUSA. Houston has won two games in a row and is 6-3 overall and 3-1 in the league.

Tulsa has been the more consistent of the two teams this season, with their only hiccup being a 49-24 loss at BYU in their second game.

Offensively, they have been solid although not as explosive as last year. The Golden Hurricane is averaging 29.6 points per game and just less than 400 yards of total offense. They have a huge and talented offensive line. Quarterback Paul Smith is an excellent leader and has put up good numbers, having completed slightly 68.6 percent of his passes for 1,680 yards. He has a touchdown to interception ratio of two to one, having thrown 12 touchdowns compared to only six picks. Tulsa has only committed 10 turnovers, which is tops in the conference. The Golden Hurricane has also gotten the job done in the red zone (90%) and on third down conversions (49.5%).

They will face a UH defense that surrendered 31 points and 530 yards to UCF last week. Despite a poor showing last week, the Cougar defense is improved this season. It is allowing 23.1 points and 357 yards per game. Houston has struggled to stop the run at times, but must rise to the challenge this week against a solid Tulsa rushing attack.

Houston has been explosive offensively, particularly in the passing game. Senior quarterback Kevin Kolb leads the Cougars. Kolb, who is a long shot to win the Heisman Trophy, has thrown for 2,608 yards while completing 67.6% of his passes. He has thrown 21 touchdown passes, but only three interceptions. His two favorite targets have been Donnie Avery (41 receptions for 583 yards and four scores) and Jeron Harvey (31 receptions for 542 yards and four touchdowns).

The running game has been hit or miss and inconsistent throughout the season, but it appears to be clicking now. Last week, Jackie Battle and Anthony Aldridge combined to rush for over 200 yards. Aldridge had 133 yards on only nine carries. For the season, he is averaging an amazing 11.9 yards per carry, as he has rushed for 436 yards on only 39 carries.

Against UCF, Houston finished with 516 yards, including 230 on the ground.

The Cougars’ potent attack will face a Golden Hurricane defense that is tops in the conference and the 11 th best in the nation. Tulsa is only allowing 263.5 yards per contest. They are fourth nationally in pass defense, as they only allow 138.6 yards per game. This success is despite not forcing many turnovers (11) and not sacking the opposing quarterbacks much (10).

Tulane @ Marshall

After limping out of the gates to a 1-5 start, the Thundering Herd has found its stride the past two weeks while improving to 3-5 overall and 2-2 in CUSA. Marshall is still very much in the CUSA East Division title race, as they are one of three teams in the division with two losses.

The Green Wave (3-5, 1-3) on the other hand is all but out of the West Division race, but is still playing for a bowl bid. They defeated Army 42-28 last week.

After struggling the first half of the season, the Herd offense has come on strong the past two games against UAB and Memphis. They have gotten star back Ahmad Bradshaw unleashed on the ground, which has opened up the passing game. With 125 yards on 25 carries against Memphis, Bradshaw has recorded 375 yards in the last two games.

Quarterback Bernie Morris left the Memphis game in the first quarter with turf toe and it will be day-to-day as far as his status for the Tulane game. If Morris can’t go, Jimmy Skinner has proven that he can come in and prevent the offense’s production from dropping off.

The Herd has been excellent on third down, as they are converting 50 percent of their attempts, including nearly 61 percent in conference games.

They will be facing a Tulane defense that is coming off a strong performance against Army last week. The Green Wave only allowed 267 yards in the game, but for the season they’re still giving up 395 yards per contest. They have also only forced nine turnovers.

Offensively, TU is pretty good. They have a veteran quarterback in Lester Ricard, who has thrown for 2,176 yards and 16 touchdowns. He has completed 58.9% of his passes and has only thrown five picks. Demarcus Davis and Preston Brown have been his top two targets. They have caught 34 and 33 balls while totaling 468 and 365 yards, respectively.

Matt Forte has given Tulane a solid running threat while opening up the passing attack. Forte, who is averaging 5.5 yards per carry, has rushed for 798 yards and five touchdowns.

The Marshall defense had trouble stopping Memphis last week, but they were able to force four turnovers that played a huge role in their 41-27 win over the Tigers.

This should be a pretty competitive ball game, but I give the edge to Marshall since the game is being played in Huntington at Joan C. Edwards Stadium.

It shouldn’t lack scoring……Marshall 38 Tulane 28.

Rice @ UTEP

Before the season began, not many people would have given the Owls much of a chance to beat the Miners. However, Rice has been the surprise of the league behind the leadership of first year head coach Todd Graham. The Owls are 3-5 overall and 2-2 in CUSA, but lost a one-point decision to a very good Houston team. They are coming off an open week, which was preceded by a 40-29 win over UCF in Orlando. They are still alive in the bowl hunt, but will need to pull a road upset to make their bowl dreams become a reality.

UTEP (4-4, 2-2) has experienced a roller coaster season. The last time out, the Miners fell to Tulsa, 30-20, after leading 20-6 in the third quarter. They are tough to beat in the Sun Bowl, having won three of their four homes games. Their only loss was a narrow 38-35 defeat to Texas Tech.

Rice, which looks completely different offensively this season, has thrown the ball really well after running the flexbone a season ago. Quarterback Chase Clement has thrown for nearly 1,100 yards, while completing right at 60 percent. He has thrown 14 touchdowns and only four interceptions. Clement is also a viable running threat, as he has rushed for 340 yards on 71 carries.

Clement has the luxury of throwing to a receiver the caliber of Jarett Dillard, who has caught 60 balls for 769 yards and 12 scores.

On the ground, Quinton Smith has carried the workload. He has run for 667 yards, while averaging 5.3 per carry.

The Miners have been pretty good at stopping the run, but have allowed some big numbers through the air at times this year. Their secondary has posted 12 interceptions though, and they lead the conference in takeaways with 19.

Offensively, UTEP has been one-dimensional. Their aerial attack has carried the bulk of the workload and accounted for most of their production. Jordan Palmer, the younger brother of the Cincinnati Bengals’ Carson Palmer, has thrown for 2,132 yards while completing just less than 70 percent. He has thrown 15 touchdowns, but has also thrown 11 picks. He has done a better job of taking care of the ball recently after struggling in the first half of the season.

His number one target is the explosive Johnnie Lee Higgins, Jr. He has 898 receiving yards on 56 receptions and has caught eight touchdowns.

They are probably licking their chops as they will face an Owl defense that is allowing 434 yards per game. Rice is last in CUSA in total defense and rushing defense. Keep an eye on this match-up and see if UTEP’s Marcus Thomas can have a rare successful day on the ground.

Rice will play with UTEP, but I think the Miners will win a high-scoring contest in the Sun Bowl. After all, they are tough to beat at home and are also playing for bowl eligibility as they come into the game with a record of 4-4.

Southern Miss @ Memphis

Southern Miss is headed to the Liberty Bowl at 4-4 overall and 2-2 in the league. They have currently fallen out of first place in Conference USA’s East Division following their 20-17 overtime loss at home to East Carolina. With the Pirates playing well, and also division foe Marshall coming on strong, the Golden Eagles can ill afford to have a slip up at struggling Memphis.

The Tigers (1-7, 0-4) are coming off a 41-27 loss at Marshall. They are yet to record a Division I-A this season, as their only win was against I-AA Chattanooga in their second game of the season.

Against East Carolina, Southern Miss’ Jeremy Young threw for a season-low 79 yards. This allowed the Pirates to focus their efforts on slowing down fabulous freshman Damion Fletcher, which they did. He finished the night with only 59 yards on 16 carries. “Fletch” has run for 740 yards on 147 attempts, which equates to five yards per carry.

The Golden Eagles need someone to emerge as a go-to receiver in the passing game. The two most likely candidates are Shawn Nelson and Damion Carter. Carter is averaging 18.4 yards per reception, but has only caught 13 passes.

Young, who is in his initial season under center, has been up and down. He has thrown for 1,018 yards while completing 55.4% of his attempts. He, however, has only thrown six touchdowns compared to five picks.

USM will be facing a Memphis defense that has struggled mightily, particularly against the run. The Tigers are surrendering 190 yards per game on the ground and nearly 400 yards of total offense. They have only sacked opposing quarterbacks eight times and have forced 14 turnovers.

Offensively, UM isn’t bad. They move it primarily through the air. Junior Martin Hankins is having a good initial season, as he has passed for 1,804 yards while completing 62.4%. He has also thrown 14 touchdown passes, but his biggest downfall has been his inability to protect the football. Hankins has thrown 12 picks.

Duke Calhoun and Ryan Scott are his go-to men. Calhoun has recorded 28 receptions for 420 yards and four scores. Scott has caught 31 balls for 418 yards and three touchdowns.

Joseph Doss gives the Tigers an adequate running threat, as he has rushed for 531 yards while averaging four yards per rush.

They will face a USM defense that isn’t as good as the Golden Eagles are accustomed to having, but they’re still not bad. They rank second in CUSA behind Tulsa and have been forced to attempt to keep USM in games lately. This likely won’t be needed against Memphis, as the Golden Eagles’ offense should be able to muster more success against the struggling Tiger defense.

If Memphis wants to have a chance to upset USM in the Liberty Bowl, they must do a few things differently. Number one, they must protect the football. Secondly, they must force USM to give it up. Finally, they must be able to at least slow down Damion Fletcher.

I don’t see this happening though. The Golden Eagles get back on track and defeat the Tigers in Memphis. USM 34 Memphis 17